Welcome to the 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profile. Here are some recent winners on the US Classic Trail.th Preakness Stakes on May 17th at Pimlico.
The 1 3/16-mile Preakness field was confirmed Monday night, with one of the new shooters who didn’t compete in the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve to become the focus of the week. Take a closer look at Gosger, the two-length winner of the $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, on the Keeneland Race course on April 12th.
Race overview: Gosgar hasn’t run a bad race yet with his three starts. He got off to a late start in his career, making his debut on December 14th, 2024, and was the second rally in a sprint at Gulfstream Park. The Nyquist Colt pushed the pace as he extended to a mile at Gulfstream Park, earning 1½ length until February 15th in his first race at 3.
Gosgar took a big step in his third start. This was his first attempt at the stakes competition in the Lexington Stakes. Gosgar took a dream trip to stalking the pace, saving the ground behind a medium fragment under Irado Ortiz Jr., traveled several paths outside into the stretch of Keeneland, surged clear to win in two lengths. He finished much faster than his previous victory, completing the final three-eighth of the time on 37.62 and the final furlong in one mile: 12.88. This is a really positive sign for a 3 year old who starts at a 3 year old.
Speed numbers: The Lexington Stakes victory was a major jump in class, but the results did not lead to improved speed numbers. Gosgar improved from 73 Bayer Speed figures for his career debut to 88 for his Maiden victory in February, and essentially paired with 87 for the Lexington Stakes. His equiverline is very similar 80-94-96. But that may not be a bad thing for Preakness, as Gosgar can (and should) improve with five weeks of rest in the third start of the year.
Running Style: Preakness has multiple speed hoses and several out-of-pace runners. A possible favorite journalism is a Gosgar-like stalker, both of whom can benefit from an ideal trip just behind speed (along with the Thames River). The dream travel gosgar, which benefited from the Lexington stakes, could be repeated in Preakness under new jockey Lewis Thirds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge_xydungli
Bloodline Memo: Gosgar is the fifth crop of Nyquist, the winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby, and the two-turn Grade 1 winners, including the two-year-old Philly Champion bull and the Vocchist stallion, as well as Randomized, Slowdown Andy and Johannes.
Gosgar was produced by Tapit Male Gloria S. Tapit of Tapit. Tapit is one of the best stamina syrahs on the planet, and Gloria produced the 2020 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes winner Harvey’s Lil Goyle. Gloria S is also a half sister (same dam (mother), different stallions (father)) until the winner of the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
There are many classes and stamina within this lineage that you should dream of.
Possibility of Preakness: On paper, Gosgar isn’t fast enough to win the Preakness Stakes, but he qualifies for improvement in the fourth start of his career. Whether it’s an important step forward is enough to make him a winning candidate, and I ask the important questions.
I think Gosgar has important undeveloped possibilities. He could have a dream trip in Preakness and I think it was built at 1 3/16 miles. If he brings his “A” game (or B+), I don’t think he’s enough to beat the runner-up journalism in the Kentucky Derby, but I think he can round out Preakness’ accuracy. That would be a result for the 3-year-old in his fourth race.
