Betting on golf is a beautiful, infuriating, exhilarating puzzle. Standing on the 3 footer, it’s like what your peers are watching. There are many ways to bet on tournaments, but if you blindly fire a complete winner and want the best, you’ll probably find yourself in a financial banker.
Instead, we’ll give you a step-by-step guide on how to build betting cards like a pro, and how to balance risk and reward.
When betting on golf, three important factors often work: course fit, current form, and course history.
A course fit is everything about how a golfer’s skill set matches the layout. Bomber paradise, precision heavy trucks, putting contests and more.
His current form has seen momentum and confidence recently. Because players who stripe gray last week are more attractive than searching for swings.
The history of the course is a comfortable element – some players can see a better look at a particular course, whether it is a grass type or a memory of past successes. The sweet spot is when all three are in place. But in the bet, you are looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing more than the others is where you find the edge.
Understand your betting options
Golf bets don’t just choose winners. There are many ways to get actions – some are safer than others – and if you build your bet correctly, you can still win cash, even if your full pick collapses. Here’s a quick summary of the most popular bets:
The perfect winner
This is the classic “Who has the trophy on Sunday?” bet. The golf field is massive, so the overt odds are juicy, but that means they’re difficult to hit. Tickets for 30-1 are fun, but only if you are betting a complete winner. When your wallet looks like an open and rough in the US, you’ll have a lot of weekends.
Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative bets. Think of the top 20 bet as a higher dramatic play. It is not necessary for golfers to win, they must end within a certain range. The top 20 bet at +120 may not be thrilling, but by consistently cashing these, you will keep your bankroll alive while sprinkling the full ticket.
A golfer who is 30-1 to win a tournament has a 3.2% chance of winning. Compare it to a +200 top 20 bet (33% unspoken probability) – is there a big difference? That’s why I bet on longer odds and higher probability of play.
Leader of the first round
This is where things become fun. Instead of sweating out the full four-day tournament, golfers need to take the lead after 18 holes. In many cases, the odds for the first round are 20-1 or higher, so these bet on the fraction of the unit (more on that later). Morning tee time, mild situations and offensive scorers are key factors in the first round leader’s betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, you’ll want to put something in danger so that he comes out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you are potentially rolling the rest of your card at will.
Direct battle
If betting a perfect winner is something like aiming for a pin, then a matchup bet is like a layup to the middle of the green. You simply choose one golfer to defeat another golfer in one round or in a full tournament. A much more controlled way of betting. I prefer to bet full tournaments. This is because it provides great selection results over the course of four days, as opposed to high volatility in a single round. There is also a 3-ball matchup. Think of it as having three players facing each other. It’s a longer odds, but adding a third will make you more risky.
Props and Major Market
Major unleashes a fun bet buffet. Some are seen every week, while others are only seen at the biggest tournament of the year.
Top American, Top Europe, etc. Choose the best finisher from a particular region.
Is there a hole-in-one? : obvious. It’s always fun and always fascinating.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go to Fullcam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or would someone post 82 in windy conditions?
Make a cut-perlay: A combination of players who create cut lines.
Bet cards structuring and bet size management
Throwing darts on the board and wanting the bull’s eyes is not a strategy. It’s a great way to run out of money by the weekend. And if you’re putting the same amount on everything, stop now – it’s equivalent to using fairway putters.
Instead, I like to build cards around two or three players and mix different bet types to balance risk and reward. The odds of golf vary widely, so sizing your stakes should be proportional to the risk.
This works to help the top 20 provide consistency, cash more frequently, and stabilize your bankroll. The bets in the top 10 and top 5 could be .5 units, but the overt winners are in the range .2 to .25, as they are difficult to hit. The first round leader is even more risky, rewarding, giving shots not only for big wins but also for low bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets will allow all tournaments to play. Even if your full pick stumbles, your top 20 bets can still be cash. The longer the odds, the smaller the size of the bet. This is because there is a much less chance of a hit. If you’re too big for a long shot, you could quickly get wiped out if you go on a losing streak.
If you are betting multiple players (more than five) in an event, don’t all-in with a single golfer as all stocks need to be balanced. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust the individual bet size to reduce total exposure.
The biggest tournament of the PGA Tour: 4 majors and the “5th major” of golf
Like anything else, betting on golf is to adhere to discipline and use bets as a way to improve your viewing experience. Golf bets can be grinding. If you are hoping to hit a perfect winner every week, you are looking for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risks and spreading exposure to different markets, you can stay profitable and keep your sweat alive throughout the weekend.
PGA Championship: May 15th-18th, Quazur Hollow Club (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Our Opening: Country Club, Oakmont (Pa.) June 12th-15th
Open Championship: Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland) July 17th-20th
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, wins the playoffs)
Athletic Championships: Rory McIlroy (-12, wins the playoffs)
One of the most powerful fields, the giant wallet and TPC sawgrass, is set on stage, and it’s something close to the major as it gets. It may not be the official label, but drama, history and 17-year-old Island Green make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
Bets on the 2025 PGA Championship
The odds are accurate at the time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quail Hollow doesn’t just ship it to the month. It’s about being bold and clever at the same time. When the course challenges you the way you do it, you need to know how to take risks from the tee and handle tough shots. Rather than playing safely, reward players who know when to go and when to dial. For this PGA Championship, I support those who are not afraid to take opportunities while steady under pressure. The winner in Qual Hollow is someone who can bomb it from the tee, slam the towering long irons, and scramble like crazy when you miss it.
This year feels like Rory McIlroy against the ultimate showdown, the Liv Guys. McIlroy has history, shape and course knowledge. He is basically the king of this truck. Then there are Liv guys like Bryson DeDanbo and John Lahm. It’s not just about skills. It’s about making pride and statements. If there’s a place where Rory can put his feet down and remind everyone who owns the course, it’s in Cool Hollow.
Let’s break down the second major in golf.
My favorite bet
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Win (+475)
How original is it to choose your second favorite? In the exception, McIlroy of Quazur Hollow has returned the lion to its territory. He knows every inch of this course. He has won here four times, including his first PGA title in 2010 and the 2024 edition of the Wells Fargo Championship. His length combination from the tee and his ability to score on par 5s will make him fit naturally. Quail Hollow rewards offensive drivers who can shape shots, while McIlroy’s high fade is perfectly suited to layout.
Yes, Rory just won the Masters in 2025, but he showed off his ability to close large tournaments under great pressure while navigating the decline and flow of the game. His putting is reliable if he has weak areas and if he brings that momentum to Charlotte, he is a threat to slap the field. On the approach, he was dialed in and made fourth on the field with the stroke he earned in the final 32 rounds.
Quail Hollow’s green is difficult, but when McIlroy is in rhythm, his confident strokes on the fast surface are an asset. He ranks second from the tee to the green, excels on long irons and is important on tracks that exceed 7,500 yards. His elite ball strike and familiarity on the course make him a high-confidence play, both with a top-five finish and a complete victory.
For the master, I suggested that I wait at a better number of live shows until after round 1. This time, we recommend taking pre-tournament odds. His domination here is worth it. If that number is too short to suit your taste, the top 5 is the way to go.
Scotty Schaeffler Top 5 (+105)
There are only two players who feel satisfied with the top 5. Rory and Scotty. Schaeffler is the definition of consistency. The man has accumulated top finishes at elite fields throughout the season, earning three top five in the final four starts. He now has the best tee-two green game on the tour and leads with his strokes. Such stability also goes well with places like Quazul Hollow, where he is making his PGA Tour debut. It’s dangerous, but guaranteed.
His recent improved putts are a big plus. Even when he’s not at his absolute best, he’s still in the mix because his ball strike is so good.
His form rises after the victory and has the ability to remain composed in major environments, getting Scotty for a plus five feels like a well-calculated bet.
John Larm Top 20 (-105)
The top 20 Rahms in the PGA Championship make sense. Quail Hollow is built for a man like him. With long irons, it has the ability to blow out of boxes and crush harsh conditions. He is ninth in mileage and 11th in accuracy, so he can sail it and keep exactly what this course requires. Unlike Augusta, who has lost an incredible stroke of approach, only in the second time this year, Quail Hollow rewards the green credibility from his tee. Rahm’s long game is usually Rock Solid, and this setup allows him to lean on his strength without being overly punished for an unusual week with Iron. The price of -105 feels like a steal from a man who finished in the top 15 with five of the last 10 majors he played.
Corey Connors Top 20 (+200)
Connors impresses me every week. His green game from the tee is dialed sixth on the field, and in Quail Hollow it’s half the fight. His driving accuracy (17th) is a huge asset here, especially when Raf is thick and prison. Additionally, his long iron game, especially 200-225 yards (8th), gives him a real edge with those long par 4s. Certainly, his putting could be a hit or miss, but he doesn’t need a light-out week on the green to finish in the top 20. At +200, the tacit odds feel too low for someone with his caliber on this course.
The full tournament is head-on
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson Dechambeau
This is about reliability. McIlroy’s game will remain in more than four rounds in such a challenging venue, but DeChambeau, as highlighted in Augusta last month, scored 10 points for under 10 in the first three days, and will rise three times on the fourth day. Deccanbo’s driver gets wild or his putter gets colder and his rounds get slower and faster. McIlroy’s history and his balanced game at Quail Hollow give him an edge. Bryson may drive him away, but Rory’s combination of distance and accuracy makes him more reliable.
John Rahm (-135) vs Morikawa
On courses over 7,500 yards, the Rahm hits for a long time, and the fairways prove to be invaluable. Even if Ram doesn’t have an A-game, he usually crushes a respectable finish. Meanwhile, Morikawa could fall apart if the putters and short games aren’t working together. Such volatility makes him a head-on, risky bet. He bets on his hammer and ability to minimize mistakes, essential for four rounds in Cool Hollow.
How to Bet Bryson Deccanbeau
You may love Dedanbo to win this tournament, and I will get it. He does a full throttle from a t-shirt tailored to this course, and if he is in control he can overwhelm the quail hollows.
But for me, the top 10 at +110 doesn’t cut it. Dechambeau games can flip the dime. When he dials in, he can dominate, but one bad shot can drive him away. I’d like to wait to see how he handles round one and reevaluates it. If he’s in shape, you might find a better live line in the top 10 or top 5.
