With momentum on his side, can Carlos Alcaraz protect his French Open Crown? Has Novak Jjokovic put together a miraculous tournament to win the record 25th Grand Slam title?
Last year’s women’s champion Iga Swiatek has nightmares for the season. Will Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff upset her in Paris to win the first Roland Garros title?
Our experts are overwhelmed when the French opening begins on Sunday.
How do you think Djokovic will be carried here?
Bill Connelly: If you believe that rhythm is important allit’s difficult to be optimistic. He was injured at the Australian Open so he was 7-5 overall, five of which wins came in one tournament (Miami). He was 0-2 at Clay, with Zeroset winning before heading to Geneva this week. The fact that he played another tournament the week before the slam shows us how desperate he was to find rhythm and confidence.
That said, his draw is lovely, and well, he still made the Australian Open Semi-finals and won all 10 matches he could actually play for Roland Garros last year (except for his withdrawal against Casperrood in the French Open Quarter Final). If he can improve his shape both in Geneva and Roland Garros’ early rounds, it’s not hard to see him reach the quarterfinals at least. And if the shape of potential quarterfinal opponent Alexander Zverev doesn’t improve, Djokovic could probably go further than that, but he feels that the semi-finals against the sinners feel too much like a bridge.
D’Arcy Maine: $2.87 million questions! It is very unchallenging to know what to expect from Djokovic at this point – perhaps impossible. At his best, he is still a dominant force, but that level seems increasingly unusual, and the chances of him playing in a consistently high form for multiple matches against top opponents are slim. He has struggled with Clay this season and has not won consecutive matches up to Geneva at 250th level this week. That’s not exactly the momentum you want to arrive in Paris.
But as Bill said, Djokovic’s draw, or at least the first few matches, is preferred. And if someone can play themselves in the competition in the slam, it must be Djokovic. I certainly don’t count him as a top favorite, but it is reserved for Alkaraz and the sinner at this time, but I can’t even count him accurately from the fight. At this point, I don’t know what results will completely surprise me, from the early exit to getting it all, but I think the quarterfinals feel like a safe answer.
Tom Hamilton: This was all about momentum, and the draw opened things up wonderfully for him. He must probably click on his victory mindset and find that best in the sport, especially because he gave his recent form in Clay, and that inner resolve that led him to such an incredible feat in the sport. If he plays his way, he becomes more dangerous as the match builds. If the draw goes as expected, it depends on whether he can beat Zverev in the quarterfinals and then find the old Djokovic for a potential semi-final against the sinners. I think he’ll end up in the Final Four.
Simon Cambers: Based on his form this year, it is almost impossible to know. He was good in Australia before getting injured and played well in Miami, but otherwise he’s struggling badly. It was fascinating to talk to him in Monte Carlo – he made no secret that it was becoming increasingly difficult to motivate. But this is a grand slam, and it should not have any motivational issues. He also has a great early draw that allows him to go his own way into the tournament.
I haven’t seen him win this – I need to remember that it’s just as great as he is, he is now 38 years old and it just won’t be easy. There are so many other players who can bother him, and he may be too exhausted by the time he gets to his quarters. But if he gets it through the first week without much effort, it’s going to be very dangerous as he wants that 25th slam title.
In Swiatek’s recent struggle, what can she do to win the fourth consecutive title?
Connelly: She can absolutely do it. Even in such an annoying year, she is still 27-9 in 2025, 27-3 against a player named Gauff, Mirra Andreeva or hilariously Jelena Ostapenko. The fact that she was beaten very thoroughly in the past two clay court tournaments – 6-1, 6-1 to Madrid’s Gouf. 6-1, 7-5 to Rome’s Daniel Collins – certainly not confident, her draw is absolutely cruel.
Swiatek could potentially be Marta Kostyuk (6-2 in this year’s clay, 6-2 to Sabalenka, 6-2 to Sabalenka, potentially Elena Rybakina (she’s 4-4, 0-2 in clay) or fourth foreverfoil, Ostapenko (she’s 0-6). If she gets over it, she should face runner-up Jasmine Parini in the quarterfinals. And once she’s gone by thateither Andreva or Gouf could wait in the final. If she wins the fifth French Open (and will keep pace with Rafael Nadal in that respect), she will win it.
main: Swiatek certainly can win again, but she showed how vulnerable she is and easily beatable during the lead-in event. Obviously, her skills and clay insights have not disappeared, but she needs to rediscover her confidence — and quickly — the pressure of her previous victory in the tournament doesn’t overwhelm her.
Her draw is incredibly challenging, but her opening two rounds (potentially Emaradkanu routed 6-1, 6-0 at the final meeting at the Australian Open) was able to help her self-faith and perhaps strengthen her against a very strict adversary. If Swiatek can meet at this point, it’s hard to see him finally lose for the first time against Ostapenko in the fourth round at this point, but he can prove that she can do it and do it to herself, reminding her that she is capable.
Hamilton: It’s a tricky draw for Swiatek and her form doesn’t give you many reasons for optimism. However, Roland Garros is her second home and she finds a way to lock herself in this zone that she can’t play completely. Remember when she was knocked out so much last year against Naomi osaka? Well, she found a way back to the contest and regained herself, and a week or so later she was lifting her fourth trophy.
This is to ignore the noise and pressure and focus on what makes her invincible with clay (and find a way to defeat Ostapenko). If anyone can connect two weeks’ worth of performances, it’s her.
Camber: The first thing Swiatek needs to do is take a breath and remind her that she has won the French Open four times. It’s been difficult to see her for the past few months. Part of that could be a hangover from her month-long suspension. For now, her aura has definitely disappeared. When she is tested, it’s just a case of waiting for her to unravel.
But seeing her arch nemesis, Ostapenko, in the draw section, doesn’t help her way of thinking. Ostapenko beat six of the six. If you meet in the fourth round, it’s a massive test of Swiatek’s mental strength. Her sections may not be easy to go that far, using Raducanu and Kostyuk. Swiatek needs some good victories to settle down, and if so, her confidence will grow. Form asks for a lot to get her fifth title, but to turn the switch over, it may take one good match, or even an individual match.
Which Americans will move forward the farthest in Paris?
Connelly: You have to start with Gauff. She reached the semi-finals last four Frenchmen, 19-4, reaching the final in 2022. She is a bet favorite for third place on each ESPN bet, and it can be said that she may be in second place in the meetings between Sabalenka and Swiatek in the virtual semi-finals.
On the boys, give me Tommy pole. His draws have not incredibly encouraged the run – he may face Alcaraz in the dorms with Rude, the runner-up two times in the fourth round, but he is the best American clay chaser of any man at the moment, and Taylor Fritz’s draw isn’t that good. Sebastian Corda reached the fourth round in Paris at the age of 20 in 2020, but since then he has been 5-4 for Roland Garros and a rather miserable 3-4 for Clay this year. So I say Paul.
main: Certainly Gauff seems to be a clear answer. In addition to past successes in the tournament, she is undoubtedly playing the best clay tennis of her career this season. She reached the final in Madrid, 6-1 win over Sweet 6-1 in the semi-finals, 6-1, and recorded a straight set victory over Andreva in the quarter, reaching the final in Rome. She didn’t get the trophy there, but she made a statement with a marathon victory over Zheng Qinwen in the semi-finals that lasted for three and a half hours.
Currently ranked No. 2, Gauff brings momentum and confidence to Paris, and makes him hungry for more. Reigning Australia’s Open Champion (and fellow Americans) Madison Keys could be a potential quarter-final opponent, with Goff being able to face Andreva and country’s Jessica Pegra in the semi-finals, but ultimately, given her playing lately, the final look seems to be within reach.
On the male side, Paul certainly has an impressive run in Rome, and has a truck that was reclaimed to fight, after all, but it’s hard to see him pass the enemy bill mentioned. Still, I don’t know if another American will move ahead of him. You never know, but perhaps we might get more Cinderella runs from learners Tien (facing Zverev in the first round) and Alex Michaelsen (playing the qualifiers) like we saw in Melbourne.
Hamilton: Everyone goes to Goff so I have to say… the same thing. I beat her to run her deep and she was able to become her first American woman since Serena Williams in 2015. Gouf has come very close in the past and has developed all the court games. She has these two finals this year with Clay. She fell to Sabalenca in Madrid and Paolini in Rome, but she’s building well before Roland Garros.
On the boys side, Paul has that unfortunate draw and he will likely run into Rude and Alcaraz. Rude will likely pass him there. Elsewhere, Tierfoe has never passed the third round as he struggles with his form at Korda’s clay. With Fritz’s best finish in the fourth round, it’s hard to see anyone finishing someone who waits 26 years for the American champion on the men’s side.
Camber: Gouf is an obvious choice on the part of the women, and it appears she has an easy path to the quarterfinals. Gough played good, consistent tennis this clay court season and showed surprising resistance given her serve and forehand remained technically vulnerable when her confidence wasn’t there. Payton Stearns is stunning in Rome and if she goes, she may be really hard to quit. She has Zheng as a 3-round opponent, but it can stop her on her track. Gauff is most likely.
On the men’s side, the Americans have all the tough draws, most of them are in some celebrity sections. Paul should make the final 16, but Rude may be waiting for him there. Ben Shelton has a game with clay but Alcaraz. Fritz has a tough first rounder, but if you pass Daniel Altmeier you could be there. Korda and Frances Tiafoe are in the same quarter. Even if clay is not his best surface, Fritz could still emerge as the best chance.
Is this the most widely open French opening in recent history? Which players will be surprised in the next two weeks?
Connelly: You can certainly assert something broadly open as Swiatek and Jjokovic suffer from confidence and form. But if you’re just just a few, it appears we can cruise into a pair of 1-2 finals (Sinner vs. Alkaraz, Sabalenka vs. Gouf). The fact that no one could take advantage of the months of the sinner to make his name (or even taking his first ranking) is a rather large indictment of depth on the part of a man, and it takes quite a great upset to protect us from the sinner Alkaraz. (I’m not complaining about getting the sinner Alkaraz Slam Final in the end.)
However, the female side does not need much confusion to open wide. The depths are immeasurable right now, but beyond Sabalenka, Gouf and Swaitek, inform veterans such as Andreva, Paolini, 2024 Olympic gold medalist Zheng, 2023 French open finalists, Carolina Mciba and Elina Svitorina, Daly y Dream and Naomi Osakazabalenka may have to pass Collins, Amanda Anisimova (who beat her in Toronto last year), and Zheng (who beat her in Rome) to reach Palini and Swaitek in the semi-finals! There are obstacles everywhere you go in a woman’s draw.
main: On the female side, I think it appears to be wider open since Swiatek appeared The dominant force on the surface. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised by the deep runs and titles from many players. I think Key reminded many that they can win the slams too. It will be interesting to see the rest of the impact in Paris. Paolini reached the final last year and began an incredible run in Rome, winning both singles and doubles titles. Why isn’t she, and isn’t she now?
As for men, I’m the same with Bill. This is a two-way battle between the sinner and Alkaraz. When combined, they have won the past five major titles and I don’t think that trend has stopped now. You asked so well, I say that 14th seed Arthur Phils has an unprecedented chance to elicit surprise agitation in the fourth round against the sinner. With the crowd of the house behind him and the stable clay results of this season (including the semi-finals at Barcelona and the quarter-finals at Monte Carlo), he was able to find magic and thrill the French crowd. And things will be really interesting.
Hamilton: So, it’s pretty open, but it’s not the most open in history. On the female side, Swiatek’s form is unstable, but she is probably a favorite. But if she can’t win, I think Paolini will lift her first Grand Slam title from her victory in Rome. Then you have Andreva’s new powers, the glow of Goff, and other people who know how to win a massive match with Clay like Sabalenka and Zen. But I still think it will become a tournament dominated by Swiatek.
On the boys side, it’s great to see Alkaraz Thinner’s final, but I’m tipping – and the drapers do something special at Roland Garros. Britt was able to find a way to make himself more durable in his or her shape. If it comes together for him, he can win everything.
However, with Alkaraz’s victory, it appears that he is blessed with a matchup between Alkaraz and the sinner. But it’s great to dare dream and see a French player win the title again one day.
Camber: I don’t think it’s the most open in history. I have long memories, and there was nothing guaranteed on the man’s side, as BR (before Rafa) Gaudio might remind us. Alcaraz is in his best form and is a defending champion, so he deserves a favorite, especially after beating a criminal who returned home in the Rome final. The sinner was also well seen in Rome, and if he found something like the form he had made against Rude there, he would be very difficult to stop. Behind them are Rude, Zverev and Djokovic, but Jack Draper is now a threat to a real title on every surface. If Alkaraz or one of the sinners did not win the title, that would be a surprise.
However, the women’s titles are very open. Especially because Sabalenka doesn’t match her hard coat form at all with Clay this spring. Because Swiatek is so vulnerable – in recent forms the door is open for someone to come forward. Goff will be there or there, but Paolini could be someone who runs confidently after her glorious Rome.
Who is the most likely player to win his first Grand Slam title at this year’s French Open?
Connelly: Andreva. Her career has already been a series of incredible breakthroughs, particularly upsetting Sabalenka to reach the French open cicadas last year. She has already won a pair of events at 1000 levels in 2025, and this year it’s 26-3 against players not named Gauff or Sabalenka. (And she beat Sabalenka twice in the past year!) She’s ready for another breakthrough…if she finally understands how to conquer Gauff anyway.
On the boys, give me Lorenzo Musetti. His draw isn’t bad – his toughest opponent before the semi-finals may be Holga Rune – and he went 7-2 at Roland Garros last year, with both losses coming to Djokovic. He’s 14-3 again this year. It’s still difficult to see Alcaraz with past sinners in a male draw, but Musetti doesn’t need too many breaks to find himself in the final.
main: I’ll stick with Paolini here. She’s been approaching before and plays tennis with some inspiration. Her 6-4, 6-2 victory over Goff in the Italian Open Finals was impressive. She was in the same quarter as Swiatek and has never beaten the reality champions before, including losing to her in last year’s final, but that certainly seems like their momentum has changed over the last few months.
It seems unlikely that he will have his first men’s major champion, but Roud is a two-time French open finalist who won the title in Madrid earlier this month. Defeating Alkaraz in the dormitory is a challenge, but certainly not impossible. Rude had a 6-0, 6-1 defeat to the sinners in the quarterfinals in Rome, but would perhaps give him an extra motivation if they met in the final? I might get there.
Hamilton: I go with Paolini and a draper or rude. Paolini has the incredible run behind her in Rome, but the Draper is too realistic to win a major tournament at Clay. Rude is a two-time finalist and eventually gets over the line. But of the above, with an honorable nod to Andreva – it is Parini.
Camber: Paolini is better than last year. The change in coach seems to have done a trick, and every week her confidence is growing. She covers the court very well and has more power than her size suggests. The experience of reaching the finals with Roland Garros and Wimbledon is very important and she has a game to do it. Andreeva is another option. She seems to be improving every week. Her serve has improved significantly and I love playing in Paris, where she made her first slam semi-final last year.
On the man’s side, this is difficult. Alkaraz and the sinner are so strong that it is very difficult to pass one or both. But Rood is a pick. Two times in Paris, and once at the US Open, it seemed like Rood might go all the way last year before he was unlucky with illness in the semi-finals against Zverev. His first Masters 1000 title at Clay in Madrid is a big boost and he has the ability to do the same with Roland Garros.
