Welcome to the 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profile. Check out recent winners on the US Classic Trails every week. This week, we will be focusing on the Belmont Stakes at the Saratoga Race Course on June 7th.
With the 1/4 mile race field starting to focus, one of the new shooters that didn’t compete in either of the first two triple crown races will be the theme of this week. Let’s take a closer look at Hill Road, the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes winner at Big A on May 10th.
Race overview: Hillroad began his Ireland career with trainer Adrien Murray and won one of two starts in Grass before shipping to the US.
Hillroad was transported to Chad Brown’s barn, five-time Eclipse Award winner as an outstanding trainer for his 3-year-old season. He made his season debut in the $350,000 Lamboholm Southernpa Bay Derby on March 8th, finishing a third of his losses in a 6¼ length when he needed a race to shake off the rust. Hill Road is far better in the second race this year, overcoming a stumbling at the start, closing the eighth of the Peter Pan Stake in the 1/8th mile, winning three-quarters of a length on May 10th. He burned the final eighth of the mile, at the final three-eighth of 36.64, according to Equibase’s GPS chart: 12.27.
Hill Road was a colt that many people expected to enter that year, and he really showed signs of living in Peter Pan to live on that promise. He scored a shot in the Belmont stakes for that effort.
Speed number: Hillroad recorded career-high 94 Bayer Speed Figures and new career-high 99 Equivers Speed Figures for Peter Pan’s victory. He needs to improve to win the Belmont stakes, but Bayer’s figure is promising as he could be a 5-6 point improvement in his third start after a four-month layoff.
Running Style: My colleague Noel Michaels wrote an eye-opening feature that saw his running style come to the best of 1¼ mile in Saratoga. Some data on post locations at that distance are rather clear, as distances like Hill Road are at a disadvantage. Similarly, past previews of Michaels’ Saratoga race competition have identified him returning from more than four lengths as a disadvantage in all dirt races around two turns at Saratoga. Also, closers need to rely on other horses to ensure an honest pace and navigate traffic during rallying, so that style must introduce some variables that can affect the outcome. Hill Road’s running style could have a negative impact on his chances as the track is very likely to be unfriendly to closers, as there is little predictable pace for Belmont’s stakes and trends.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xftv6oq38vy
Bloodline Memo: Hill Road is due to its elusive quality and quality roads. Quality Road was a four-time Grade 1 winner, and these top-level three wins appeared at 1 1/8 miles. Many of his best runners share speed and stamina combinations, including 2023 Preakness winner National Treasure, 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman, and 2-year-old Cornish and Caledonia Road champion.
The exotic concept of Lemon Dropkid is the dam (mother) on Hill Road. The exotic concept was the winner of the stakes arrangement in Argentina, winning at a distance of 8/7 to 1¼ mile.
Possibility of Belmont: Under the care of Chad Brown, one of the sport’s top trainers, I look forward to seeing how Hill Road will progress for the next six months, and until next year if he races as a four-year-old. He looks like a colt with a bright future. But his next start is his toughest challenge to date in the Kentucky Derby of the year, which Woodford Reserve’s winner sovereignty featured in a group of candidates for the Belmont Stakes.
Hill Road has no problem extending to 1¼ mile based on his pedigree, and whether he finished the last three-eighth of the time with Peter Pan. He needs to improve to become a winning candidate for the Belmont Stakes and overcome the track trend at a disadvantageous distance since 2000.
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