For the second year in a row, the $2 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA BETS will take place at 1 1/4 miles on the Saratoga race course, rather than the traditional 1 1/2 mile configuration at Belmont Park.
Nevertheless, Belmont history is related to identifying the most likely winners of 2025. Last year, guidelines outlined the historical profile of a typical Belmont winner highlighted the final 17-1 Maktter Dornoch as a major victory threat.
Below are some tips for using history as a guide to handicaping your 2025 Belmont Stakes.
A certain amount of immediate benefit is
Since 2005, 16 of Belmont’s 20 winners have raced 4/2 length of the lead after the opening half mile. Having a certain speed is a Belmont property, and deep down you can visit the winner’s circle.
year | winner | Location after the first 1/2 mile | ½ miles & ¾mile |
2024 | Dornock | 2nd 0.5 length (10 starters) | : 47.25, 1: 10.67 (high-speed) |
2023 | Archangel | 6th 2.75 length (9 starters) | : 47.69, 1: 12.56 (high-speed) |
2022 | Mo Donegal | 5th 2.5 length (8 starter) | : 48.49, 1: 13.23 (high-speed) |
2021 | Intrinsic quality | 5th 7 lengths (8 starters) | : 46.49, 1: 12.07 (high-speed) |
2020 | Make the law | 3rd 2 lengths (10 starters) | : 46.16, 1: 09.94 (high-speed) |
2019 | Ir Winston | 8th 6 lengths (10 starters) | : 48.79, 1: 13.54 (high-speed) |
2018 | Justify it | 1st 1.5 length (10 starters) | : 48.11, 1: 13.21 (high-speed) |
2017 | TapWrit | 3rd 2 lengths (11 starters) | : 48.66, 1: 14.01 (high-speed) |
2016 | Creator | 10th 8 lengths (13 starters) | : 48.48, 1: 13.28 (high-speed) |
2015 | American Pharaoh | 1st 1 length (8 starters) | : 48.83, 1: 13.41 (high-speed) |
2014 | Tonalist | 3rd 1 length (11 starters) | : 48.52, 1: 12.84 (high-speed) |
2013 | The palace’s evil intentions | 4th 2 lengths (14 starters) | : 46.66, 1: 10.95 (high-speed) |
2012 | Union Rug | 5th 4 lengths (11 starters) | : 49.23, 1: 14.72 (high-speed) |
2011 | Ruler on the ice | 2nd 1.5 length (12 starters) | : 49.08, 1: 14.51 (sloppy) |
2010 | Drosselmeyer | 5th 4 lengths (12 starters) | : 49.19, 1: 14.94 (high-speed) |
2009 | Summer bird | 6th 4.5 length (10 starters) | : 47.13, 1: 12.43 (high-speed) |
2008 | And ‘Nine | 1st 1 length (9 starters) | : 48.30, 1: 12.90 (high speed) |
2007 | Rags to wealth | 5th 2 lengths (7 starters) | : 50.14, 1: 15.32 (high-speed) |
2006 | Jazil | 12th 10.5 length (12 starters) | : 47.36, 1: 12.14 (high-speed) |
2005 | Afleet Alex | 8th 5.75 length (11 starters) | : 48.62, 1: 12.92 (high-speed) |
Note: As part of the triple crown season rebuilt for Covid-19, the 2020 Belmont Stakes were contested for 1 1/8 miles.
Good feeling Kentucky Derby Starter
The horse, which started in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, has won 12 of Belmont’s final 20 editions, with 10 of which winners coming directly to Belmont from the Derby.
Don’t bet on beaten preakness starters
It wasn’t that the 1998 victory Gallop bouncing the horse from a Grade 1 Preakness Stakes defeat to win Belmont.
Don’t underestimate double digit long shots
Of the last 25 Belmont winners, 11 began with double-digit odds.
We respect winners with proven ratings
The established gradual stakes winners won 16 of Belmont’s final 25 editions. They have been particularly formidable in recent years, earning 11 of the last 13 editions of the Belmont Stakes.
Supports descendants of the route racers who won Grade 1
This trend could affect the impact of Belmont shortening from 1 1/2 mile to 1 1/4 mile to 1 1/4 mile, but it is worth noting that 22 of the last 25 Belmont winners were sueed to stallions who won a Grade 1 level race in the 1 1/8 mile or far away.
Conclusion
History is the most likely winner of the 2025 Belmont Stakes Journalism.
Journalism had tactical speed, racing within 4/2 of the lead after half a mile in five of the seven starts. He competed in the Kentucky Derby announced by Woodford Reserve, finishing second. He avoided defeat in Preakness’s interests by fighting to win half the length over serious traffic. He is a proven rating winner, and he is the son of two Horse of the Year Carlins, winning Grade 1 races (including Preakness) over 1 1/8 miles.
Journalism coincides with five of our six historical angles, and misses the perfect sweep just because he is a possible favorite and doesn’t start near double digit odds.
Another horse that can compete for favors is the winner of the Kentucky Derby. sovereigntywho shows that history could be at a disadvantage in Belmont. Sovereignty is purely deep and close, and his stallion (the prank) could not win a grade 1 race of more than 1 1/8 miles, so sovereignty coincides with only three of our six historical angles.
Enjoy the Belmont Stakes!
