2025 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA BETS The top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve are formed as genuine hummingners as what would be expected to be a thrilling showdown between a truly elite three-year-old racehorse.
1¼ Mile Race – The transition to the Saratoga race course reduced Belmont Park by a quarter mile to undergo major renovations, but painted an eight-person field led by the aforementioned trio.
There are all types of variables to consider when betting on a race. This will include several speed horses, such as the number of speed horses to boost early pace, speed figures, distance preferences, and more, which runners are poised to improve. This triple crown season is motherly. Yes, rain is again in prediction, and wet tracks often play a key role in racial outcomes.
Let’s start with the basics. What is “Off” or Wet Track? In its simplest terms, “off” tracks are rated as non-fast racing surfaces. Previously, I used the following brief explanation of the conditions for dirt tracks you may see/hear on Belmont weekend.
- Good (track): Almost fast dirt track.
- Wet Fast (Track): A track with moisture on the surface that does not have time to impact the base of the surface.
- Muddy (Track): It’s in a racetrack that’s wet but has no water.
- Sloppy (Track): A lace surface that is saturated with water and allows you to see standing water.
- Enclosed (Truck): It floated (stuffed) and then harped.
The best predictor for runners to handle “off” tracks is past success. Racehorse who wins or runs faster on wet tracks is more likely to be better than horses with lower performance. The table below shows how this year’s Belmont Stakes candidates performed on the “off” track with career records, top Bayer speed figures on wet tracks, and best Equiver Speed figures on wet tracks. The best Beyer and Equibase speed figures from among Belmont stakeholders are just as bold as the participants who won on the wet track.
Belmont participants | “Off” record starts: 1st-2nd-3rd | Top Wet Bayer | Top Wet EQB |
1. Hill Road (10-1) | 0:0-0-0 | – | – |
2. Sovereignty (2-1) | 1:1-0-0 | 104 | 103 |
3. Rodriguez (6-1) | 0:0-0-0 | – | – |
4. Casged (30-1) | 2:2-0-0 | 84 | 84 |
5. Crude oil (15-1) | 0:0-0-0 | – | – |
6. Baeza (4-1) | 1:0-0-1 | 102 | 101 |
7. Journalism (9-5) | 1:0-1-0 | 102 | 101 |
8. Heart of Honor (30-1) | 0:0-0-0 | – | – |
The Kentucky Derby is still fresh in the memories of race fans. The first gem of the Triple Crown is held in Churchill Downs’ sloppy (closed) main track, providing a good indication of how the Big 3 handles the wet track. #2 sovereignty During #7 it appeared to be enjoying the surface with his 1¼ length victory Journalism and #6 Baeza Both went well in the race.
Journalism trainer Michael McCarthy said he hopes journalism can get off to a better start in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps it was due in part to his first eighth of the Derby mile or quarter mile that McCarthy considered a somewhat disappointing start in the wet track of journalism, but the race also had a field of 19 horses, which took place in front of over 147,000 people.
After the race, I thought Baeza ran the same way he ran despite the wet track, but there is no direct information to support that. Anyway, he ran monster races at his fifth career start and if he didn’t love the surface it would have gotten even better.
The only runner on the field with experience in the “off” track is #4 Not recorded. He was 2-2 on the wet track and won the best Bayer Speed figure of his career in his debut on the muddy main track in Saratoga. Success on wet tracks is good, and success on wet tracks running Uncaged on Saturday is even better.
If the truck is wet on a Belmont stakes day, sovereignty and unadored should get a great boost. Similarly, Journalism and Baeza have altered their extremely strong performance in the Kentucky Derby under harmful conditions.
Another useful tool for predicting whether a horse will thrive on a “off” track is the Tomlinson evaluation, especially for participants in the four Belmont Stakes who have no experience with wet tracks. Daily Race Form Use Tomlinson’s ratings to make educated guesses on how racehorses handle wet tracks based on the performance of horse stallions and offspring of Broodmare Sire. For Belmont Stakes Fields, the table below lists candidates from high (best for wet tracks) to low.
Belmont participants | Tomlinson (wet) |
7. Journalism (9-5) | 426 |
2. Sovereignty (2-1) | 424 |
5. Crude oil (15-1) | 408 |
4. Casged (30-1) | 405 |
1. Hill Road (10-1) | 400 |
8. Heart of Honor (30-1) | 318 |
3. Rodriguez (6-1) | 268 |
6. Baeza (4-1) | 255 |
Tomlinson’s assessment definitely supports what we see with our own eyes from the sovereignty and journalism of the Kentucky Derby. SpendThrift Farm Sir Barton Stakes Winner #5 raw Also, if Tomlinson is highly rated and can direct the pace, it could be even more dangerous on wet tracks. Two Uncaged wins on the “off” track are supported by quality Tomlinson Rating and Deep-Closer #1 Hill Road He may also move up on his first attempt on the wet track.
Neither is #8 Heart of Honor Pacesetter #3 with a high probability Rodriguez We have experience with wet trucks and their Tomlinson evaluations, but not the only thing to consider, but we are behind some of our Belmont Stakes peers. You can claim that your chance to win the final gem of the Triple Crown is better on the dry/fast surface of Saratoga.
