One of many largest races of the summer season is about on Saturday beneath the Churchill Downs Twin Spires. Stephen raises the stakes For 1,000,000 greenback pockets and a assured spot for the Breeders’ Cup Traditional.
Over the previous 30 years, Stephen Foster, who’s 1 1/8 miles, has been a key race in figuring out the highest candidate for the 1¼-mile, $7 million Rondyne Traditional. This yr, Dell can be held on March 1st and November 1st.
The 2025 Stephen Foster Stakes Star Studs lineup has been designated as the best stage of the game, Grade 1 occasion. Final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Traditional Winner (Sierra Leone) and the Kentucky Derby have been attended by the Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve winner (Mystik Dan). That is much like the winner of the Dubai World Cup this spring, sponsored by Emirates Airways’ hit present. Stephen Foster will air on Fanduel TV with scheduled posting time for six:03pm ET.
Get data on all candidates and get some guess insights with ABR cheat sheets:
1. First mission
Jockey: Lewis Thirds
coach: Brad Cox
Proprietor: Godolphin
Profession File: 12 begin – 6 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Profession Income: $2,060,170
Prime Equiver Velocity Quantity: 115
Bloodline: Road Sense – Elude, Medalia Doro
yr: 5
shade: Darkish Bay or Brown
Operating Fashion: Press Tempo/Stalker
evaluation: First Mission has gathered an excellent profession to this point, ending within the high three in 9 of 12 races. Nonetheless, he’s nonetheless sought a freshman victory and is upset with three earlier begins at that stage. One among them was final yr’s Stephen Foster, the place he set a quick tempo, however was uninterested in ending fourth as a 0.93-1 post-time favourite. This yr, the 5-year-old took third place in a 1 1/16-mile grade 3 stakes race at Oak Garden Park, then a 1 1/8-mile grade 2 Oak Garden Handicap in two lengths, incomes the 115 equestrian pace that tied his profession to the most effective. The horse has beforehand been profitable with Churchill Downs and seems to be in the most effective type of his profession. Moreover, he reveals his means to run properly whereas being positioned ahead, and his fashion ought to profit him in areas that lack a real pace horse. On the lookout for Jockey Lewis Dimension, who gained final yr Stephen Foster, he was offensive on his first mission, and maybe he put him on an early lead with an try and “wire the sphere,” or lead from begin to end.
2. Thoughts Body
Jockey: IRAD ORTIZ JR.
coach: Todd Plecher
Proprietor: repole secure and saint elias secure
Profession File: 6 begin – 4 wins – 2 seconds – 1/0
Profession Income: $1,292,160
Bloodline: Structure – Strolling the Stars with Road Sense
yr: 4
shade: Darkish Bay or Brown
Operating Fashion: Stalker
evaluation: This proficient colt is a shaky candidate for Stephen Foster, who can depart at a gorgeous postage because of the presence of larger-named horses equivalent to Sierra Leone and Mastic Dunn. He has began six instances in his profession, and won’t get any worse than the second and nonetheless seemingly to enhance. Mindframe has been 2-2 to this point in 2025, simply incomes a mile grade 2 stake at Gulfstream Park, passing the stretch and successful the 7-furlong Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes, introduced on Could third, successful a neck-wrenched by three different horses. Final yr, MindFrame virtually gained the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes introduced by NYRA BET at 1¼ mile, and after two races round one flip this yr, he needs to be able to stretch far to Stephen Foster’s 1 1/8 mile. Main nationwide jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden this colt for all six of his profession begins, and Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher gained his first victory on this race final yr. Ortiz wants to put his mount within the entrance place, and the pair even rob commanding the gate. MindFrame gained a 1 1/16 mile allowance race final yr with Churchill Downs, main from begin to end. Total, Mindframe seems to be set for career-highest efforts on Saturday.
3. SkippylOngStocking
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
coach: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Proprietor: Daniel Alonso
Profession File: 32 begin – 11 wins – 3 seconds – 1/7
Profession Income: $3,661,610
Bloodline: Exaggeration – sparkle by struggle chants
yr: 6
shade: bay
Operating Fashion: Press Tempo/Stalker
evaluation: In an age the place many high racehorses retire at age 3 or 4 and head to breeding huts, this six-year-old is a throwback. Since debuting on the age of two in 2021, SkippylongStocking has began for 32 and has by no means missed a significant day off the observe. His greatest races have been Grade 2 and Grade 3 ranges, however you may count on him to make a superb, sincere effort virtually each time. The exaggerator horse can be shipped to Churchill Downs from one in all his high efforts. Three-quarter size at 1¼ mile, on Could twenty sixth, the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes at Santa Anita Park was their second win within the fourth begin of the yr. He took a stable third place at Stephen Foster final yr and can be reunited with jockeys at that race, Jose Ortiz on Saturday. Total, SkippylongStocking’s greatest Equibase Velocity figures are a number of factors decrease than these gained by a few of Stephen Foster’s opponents, however he is value utilizing in his enticing mail-time bets with Exacta and Trifecta bets.
4. Sierra Leone
Jockey: Flavien Plat
coach: Chad Brown
Proprietor: Peter Brandt, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg Ltd., Brook Smith
Profession File: 10 begin – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 1/3
Profession Income: $6,058,000
Bloodline: Gun Runner – Love in Heaven by Malibu Moon
yr: 4
shade: Darkish Bay or Brown
Operating Fashion: Nearer
evaluation: Sierra Leone is prepared for his second begin at Stephen Foster on Saturday on the age of 4, permitting him to depart as a post-time favourite regardless of returning to the disappointing observe at Grade 2 New Orleans Traditional Stakes on March twenty second. It was a simple first-time begin from Sierra Leone’s profession greatest race, a 1½-long victory at 1¼ mile within the Rondeine Breeders’ Cup Traditional final fall, and was actually spectacular at Del Mar, incomes a 116 equestrian pace determine, however he additionally benefited from the extraordinarily quick early tempo that helped set the rally. This implies there aren’t any one-dimensional pace horses on this yr’s Stephen Foster Subject. Which means that the early tempo is reasonable, making it tough for Sierra Leone to convene typical closing kicks. He qualifies for enchancment in his second begin of the yr, however Sierra Leone will want to take action to beat this expert area. Underlay Please come at posting time.
Is it your first time racing? Let me clarify…
Odds overlays and overlays when betting: A horse with odds of underraid means the percentages of successful in his/her Palimoot Herbetting Pool (that means that each one bets are collected and distributed to the winner). Decrease I consider that that is extra of an opportunity to win the race than you, as a bettor. So, for instance, if Sierra Leone has odds of 1-1 (known as “equal cash”) in foster care, that corresponds to a 50% probability that he’ll win the race. When you, a bettor, consider that his possibilities of victory are above 50%, then he’s underlay with 1-1 odds (his odds are positioned beneath his perceived probability to win) and isn’t definitely worth the guess.
For horses with overlaid odds, the alternative is true. Larger Estimate his possibilities of victory and make him/her the bettor greater than you, your bettor. Utilizing this instance once more, if Sierra Leone has 4-1 Parimoutoel odds in foster dad and mom, this corresponds to a 20% probability of successful. When you suppose he has a 50% probability of successful (or 30% or 40%) and the opposite bettors within the pool are giving him a 20% odds, take them!
5. With the mystic
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
coach: Ken McPeak
Proprietor: 4G Racing, Lancegathaway, Daniel Humby III, Valleyview Farm
Profession File: 13 begin – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third
Profession Income: $4,417,750
Bloodline: Goldencents – Ma’am, Colonel John
yr: 4
shade: bay
Operating Fashion: Stalker
evaluation: After a pair of no-show races final winter, Mystic Dunn discovered the extent of means he confirmed an upset victory within the 1¼-mile, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby introduced by Churchill Downs’ Woodford Reserve over a yr in the past. First, he returned from a break of over three months in early Could, dropping in a 1 1/16 mile stakes race at Oaklawn Park, dropping by nostril, then returning to Louisville’s 1/8 mile residence observe, incomes a 1/third slam on Could thirty first. Derby leads Mystik Dan with a denounced curiosity. They save the bottom alongside the inside, watch for house to enter the stretch earlier than making a decisive bid and taking command. Search for horses and riders who will attempt the identical strategy once more on Saturday on observe the place Mystik Dan is a 4-4 life. He gained the Kentucky Derby with a mile and 1 / 4, however this colt seems to be excellent for 1 1/8 mile or shorter races.
6. Hit the present
Jockey: Florent Gel
coach: Brad Cox
Proprietor: Wasnan Racing
Profession File: 18 begin – 9 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Profession Income: $8,406,928
Bloodline: Sweet Journey – Actress, Tapit
yr: 5
shade: Gray or Lone
Operating Fashion: Nearer
evaluation: The late veteran picked the correct race to make his career-highest effort in March and got here from tempo to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airways. That 1¼ mile race passed off halfway all over the world at Meydan Racecourse within the UAE and featured a global area headlined by Japanese Star Eternally Younger (who completed third) and several other different stable but beautiful US horses, together with a mixture of runner-ups. The hit present will return to the US in a race the place the pockets is $11 million decrease for a brief mile, however he will certainly face some robust on the sphere. Total, he has had an excellent profession to this point, significantly stretching since August final yr when he gained 5 of his seven begins, together with the 2024 Lucas Traditional Stake, which was held 1/8 mile on the Churchill observe. That is a priority, as US horses getting back from journeys to Dubai typically carry out poorly on their first race backs, and the present’s highest equestrian pace figures are decrease than these of Sierra Leone, Mystic Dan and secure first missions. Nonetheless, he’s a risk to accumulate Stephen Foster beneath Jockey Florent Guru, who was using each the Lucas Traditional and Dubai World Cup final yr. Like Sierra Leone, he wants a quick tempo to assist arrange a cost from his entrance, and he might not have the ability to get it on Saturday.
7. Ashcroft
Jockey: Julien Reparoo
coach: Basnicol
Proprietor: Debra Berkley
Profession File: 12 begin – 2 wins – 1 second – 1/0
Profession Income: $109,923
Bloodline: Munnings – Sky Willow, Empire Maker
yr: 5
shade: chestnut
Operating Fashion: Stalker/Crosser
evaluation: Ashcroft is an outsider of Stephen Fosterfield this yr, incomes high fifth place in all three earlier stakes appearances. Nonetheless, he believes he can pay some consideration to the truth that former coach Corridor of Fame D. Wayne Lucas will get his first begin with coach Bass Nicole after he introduced his retirement attributable to well being issues. Lucas, 89, took over Ashcroft’s coaching duties for his latest begin on Could 3, when he completed fifth within the 12 runners within the one-mile Knicks Go Night time Stakes introduced by the L&N Federal Credit score Union at Churchill’s Slappy Monitor. Munnings Horse was an extended shot at 32.82-1 that day, however most likely will not depart in that worth vary, attributable to assist in Foster’s small area and betting home windows from Lukas’ followers corps. Now, Lukas’ longtime assistant Nicholl takes over the duty for the coaching. Ashcroft’s possibilities for victory are very small, so search for jockey Julian Reparoo. Julian Reparoo returns to his second begin with a fifth-place end within the seven-farlong commonwealth stakes at Keeneland, and locations him near the sphere in hopes of getting a drained runner on the stretch and filling the superfector.
Is it your first time racing? Let me clarify…
Superfecta or Trifecta Filler: Play Superfecta (choose the primary 4 finishers) or Trifecta (first 3 finishers) and use this horse within the third and fourth slots, and should you will not win or end second, it is best so as to add the horse to your guess.
