The NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar on Oct. 31 is predicted to function a area of gifted 2-year-old fillies, and deciding the most certainly winner might be a problem.
Thankfully, historical past helps us. You need to use these seven historic traits to type by means of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies candidates and decide which fillies are most certainly to win the highest prize.
prefers horses with quick velocity
It is not unattainable for slower horses to win within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, however 10 of the final 15 winners (67%) had been in first, second or third place races after the primary half mile.
12 months | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and three/4 mile instances (street situation) |
2024 | immersive | 5th 5.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :44.99, 1:10.03 (quick) |
2023 | For reference | 2n.d. 1 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :46.60, 1:10.95 (quick) |
2022 | marvel wheel | 11th 4.75 size distinction (13 starters) | :47.22, 1:12.80 (quick) |
2021 | echo zulu | 1cent 1.5 size distinction (6 starters) | :47.01, 1:10.96 (excessive velocity) |
2020 | Bequist | 3rd 1.5 size distinction (7 starters) | :47.12, 1:11.32 (quick) |
2019 | british idiom | 6th 5.75 size distinction (9 starters) | :46.02, 1:11.93 (excessive velocity) |
2018 | jaywalk | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :46.76, 1:11.48 (quick) |
2017 | caledonia street | 9th 6.5 size distinction (13 starters) | :46.72, 1:11.38 (quick) |
2016 | champagne room | 2n.d. 1.5 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :48.19, 1:13.01 (quick) |
2015 | songbird | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.15, 1:11.42 (quick) |
2014 | Take Cost Brandy | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :45.99, 1:10.07 (excessive velocity) |
2013 | Lea Antonio | 6th 7 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :45.31, 1:09.30 (quick) |
2012 | beholder | 1cent 1.5 horse size distinction (8 starters) | :46.47, 1:11.00 (quick) |
2011 | my miss aurelia | 2n.d. 2.5 size distinction (14 starters) | :47.19, 1:13.08 (good) |
2010 | fantastic feathers | 3rd 1.5 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :48.14, 1:13.11 (quick) |
Rosario and Smith are essentially the most profitable jockeys
The winningest jockeys in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies historical past are Mike Smith and Joel Rosario. They every boast 13 wins and three wins. All three of Rosario’s wins have come since 2018.
The success price of favorites is wonderful
Widespread horses gained 20 out of 41 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies races (49%). That is considerably increased than the favourite’s regular win price.
midrange Keep away from lengthy photographs to win
Within the historical past of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, the one filly to win this race at odds between 8-1 and 16-1 is 2001 Tempera (11.90-1).
When you’re taking part in towards a favourite or one other low-priced horse, it is higher to go for the lengthy shot. Fillies who began at 17-1 or higher have gained the Juvenile Fillies eight instances (19.5%), together with 4 instances since 2013.
Helps confirmed Grade 1 performers
Fillies with expertise competing on the G1 degree have gained 22 of the final 24 Juvenile Fillies. Moreover, two horses that bucked this development (Dreaming of Anna in 2006 and Superior Feather in 2010) went undefeated in a number of non-G1 stakes, so it takes a particular filly to win Juvenile Fillies even with out G1 expertise.
Assist Frisette-bred mares
The G1 Frisette Stakes is essentially the most influential prelude for Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the final 15 winners (47%).
G1 Alcibiades Stakes (4 winners, 27%) and G1 Del Mar Debutante (3 winners, 20%) are additionally productive prep horses.
Lengthy operating expertise is vital
Fillies with racing expertise of 1 mile or extra have gained 14 of the final 15 Juvenile Fillies (93%). Throughout this era, eventual four-time champion Beholder was the one juvenile filly to beat a primary begin distance of multiple mile.
conclusion
In keeping with historical past, the favorites to win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies are: iron orchard.
Iron Orchard has velocity and gained the primary two beginning sprints in gate-to-wire vogue. She then rallied from a quick tempo from lower than three lengths to win the one-mile Frisette, making her profession file an ideal 3-for-3.
Iron Orchard’s common jockey is Joel Rosario, who will proceed to experience him within the Breeders’ Cup. Given the truth that Iron Orchard will nearly actually begin at odds decrease than 8-1, the pitfalls of being a middle-distance lengthy shot are averted, and she or he matches the profile of a typical Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner nearly completely.
Please think about your handicap and benefit from the race.
