Grime sprints are the cornerstone of U.S. Thoroughbred racing, and the $2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Dash is the division’s crown jewel, with the winner incomes the Eclipse Award as champion sprinter in 10 of the previous 11 seasons and 13 of the previous 15 seasons.
This yr’s six-furlong race, to be held Nov. 1 at Del Mar, options the highest three horses from final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash (additionally at Del Mar), Straight No Chaser, Bentornato and Mullikin, from a gifted group of 17 pre-entered sprinters.
As at all times, the Breeders’ Cup Dash presents bettors with a troublesome handicap puzzle. So let’s check out the previous 25 races from 2000 to 2024 for necessary knowledge that would assist choose this yr’s winner.
latest kinds
Wanting on the knowledge for the final 25 successful horses, the obvious key pattern is the power of the earlier race. Sixteen of the final 25 horses have received, and 22 of the 25 have positioned first or second within the ultimate Breeders’ Cup warm-up race. Solely 2008 winner Midnight Lute and 2020 winner Whitmore entered the race from unfinished spots. The previous had received the dash the earlier yr, and though it was a lackluster effort upon his return from a nine-month break, he honed in on his successful streak. Whitmore was fourth in ultimate preparation earlier than successful the Dash in 2020, however had run the Dash 4 years in a row after ending second in 2018 and third in 2019.
repeat bid
Straight No Chaser got here again from third place a yr in the past to win by half a size and can intention to repeat his successful streak within the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Dash. Since 2000, there have been 11 horses aiming to win back-to-back dash titles. Midnight Lute received in 2008, Roy H received back-to-back in 2018, and Elite Energy received back-to-back in 2022-23. After successful in 2013, Secret Circle took second place in 2014 behind Work All Week. The opposite seven horses misplaced their locations the yr after they received the dash.
The Spa and Santa Anita
Fourteen of the previous 25 Breeders’ Cup winners got here from prep races held at both Santa Anita Park (eight) or Saratoga Race Course (six). Add within the three at Belmont Park and one at Aqueduct, and 40 % of the wins throughout that interval got here from New York prep groups.
2nd yr sprinter
Since 2000, six 3-year-olds have confirmed as much as the duty of defeating older horses within the Breeders’ Cup Dash, however that hasn’t occurred since Run Blissful (2015) and Drephon (2016) received back-to-back titles. Earlier than that, 3-year-olds Squirtle Squirt (2001, $2 single-win for $21.20), Cajun Beat ($47.60, 2003), Silver Practice ($25.80, 2005) and Triniburg ($29.40, 2012) had been all longshots. 4 of the six horses entered the race with wins, with Squirtle Squirt and Trinnniburg ending second by half a size.
I need a determine
The common successful Equibase pace determine for Breeders’ Cup Sprints over the previous quarter-century has been 117.5, with a median of 118. Win numbers ranged from 108 to 128, with 23 of the 25 gamers scoring 111 or greater. When searching for winners, concentrate on sprinters who run constantly inside that vary, or a minimum of those that maintain profession bests inside that vary. Equally, 20 of the previous 25 horses have entered the race with a G2 or higher victory.
tactical pace
Having tactical pace has confirmed to be an enormous benefit in racing, as 12 of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup Dash winners have been pacesetters or press sorts. The one true deep closers to win the Dash since 2000 had been Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008.
Battle for place
Tactical pace is a useful asset in Breeders’ Cup sprints, however it’s removed from a assure that you will stumble at or close to the entrance. In reality, of the ultimate 25 winners, solely two had been within the lead after the primary quarter mile, and solely 5 had been within the lead within the ultimate quarter mile. Races usually have numerous quick horses, so tactical pace is only a matter of maintaining the winner inside vary of the quicker tempo. Fifteen of the 25 winners completed within the high three after half a mile and 7 completed fifth or worse, however Midnight Lute in 2007 was the one one to fall greater than 4 and a half lengths again at that time within the race, with a median end of 1 and a half lengths on the quarter pole.
the place is the worth
There have been six favorites to win the previous 25 editions of the Dash, with 11 winners at odds of lower than 4-to-1, however this race was eventful, with 9 winners paying greater than $20 on a $2 single-win guess and 5 paying greater than $30: Cajun Beat (2003 odds of twenty-two.80-1), Swords Echo (2006) (odds 15.60 to 1), Dancing Silks (25/30/2009-1), Work All Week (19/10/2014), Whitmore (18:40/1/2020). Of the 9 $20 winners, 4 received, 4 completed second and misplaced by lower than a size, with Whitmore ending fourth earlier than making his fourth begin within the dash.
on the california filth
Twelve of the previous 25 Breeders’ Cups have been held in Southern California, however for this train, let’s exclude the 2008 and 2009 occasions held on all-weather surfaces and concentrate on the occasions held on filth predominant tracks like this yr.
Of the ten races held on Southern California filth, solely two have been received by widespread horses, and there have been 4 double-digit long-shot winners. Seven of the ten vehicles entered the dash with wins, however nobody completed worse than second within the ultimate warm-up race. Three out of 10 had been 3-year-olds.
Solely one of many 10 winners was within the lead after the primary half-mile, however 9 of the ten had been inside three and a half lengths of the chief, and 7 of the ten confirmed a capability to use stress and set tempo going into the race. Tactical pace was a bonus as 5 horses moved rapidly to the entrance and 9 of the ten had been within the high three.
specialist race
As a normal handicapping precept, I like the lowered distance strategy when betting on dash races, however it wasn’t an efficient technique for the Breeders’ Cup dash. The median race distance for Breeders’ Cup Dash winners within the earlier 25 World Championship championship years was 6.5 furlongs, and 23 of the successful horses had a median distance of seven furlongs or much less. The common distance for the ten winners to the Breeders’ Cup was 6.37 furlongs, with a median distance of 6.4 furlongs, including to the texture of sprinter racing on Southern California filth.
2025 Breeders’ Cup Dash Forged Scores
It is smart to begin with the winner’s protection. straight no chaser. The Dash is a race by which back-to-back wins are doable, and whereas there have been three consecutive winners since 2008, it’s a formidable problem, with eight different horses having failed prior to now quarter-century. The straight-no-chaser might have wanted this race, as he completed third within the Grade 2 Santa Anita Dash Championship S introduced by Estrella Jalisco in his first begin after a five-and-a-half month break. Third place goes to Mark Once more, however Straight No Chaser is unquestionably a six-furlong specialist, coming off a Santa Anita leadoff full of tactical pace and proving a yr in the past that he was quick sufficient to win.
Additionally final yr’s runner-up Welcome again He appears to be the highest candidate for the championship. The horse returned from a greater than 10-month break within the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at Churchill Downs on September thirteenth with a 5 1/2 size run. His off-pace wins earned him a career-high 117 Equibase pace determine, so he’s in nice kind and has glorious tactical pace, ending second within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dash by a half-length, proving he’s as much as the problem of his class. He’s the primary dash winner of this century to emerge from the prelims at Churchill Downs, however he’s additionally the favourite to win.
Santa Anita Dash Championship High 2, Winners creativeness and runner-up Dr. Venkmancould have a rematch with Straight No Chaser within the Breeders’ Cup Dash. Creativeness is operating in long-distance races, shortened to 6 furlongs to finish a seven-race winless streak for Corridor of Fame coach and five-time Breeders’ Cup Dash winner Bob Baffert. Equally, Dr. Venkman is healthier at barely longer vary. Neither has the profile of a typical dash specialist, however each are quick sufficient to be thought of.
love sick blues 5 of his six begins this yr have been on turf, however his one race on filth was the six-furlong Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar, the place he completed by 3/4 of a size. He is a confirmed sprinter, however not essentially an amazing one. filth He is a sprinter, however extra of an off-the-pace runner, so that would hinder his probabilities. That stated, Lovesick Blues may gain advantage from his favourite monitor if he has a very quick tempo on this yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash.
Final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Dash third place winner me too Though he has not received in 4 races this yr, he did effectively within the Grade 1 race held at Saratoga in August, ending seventh. He was a lot better a yr in the past. expulsion His final two begins, together with his victory within the Charles City Basic Stakes, began at 1 1/8 miles, the place it was troublesome to shut the three-furlong distance and he completed third. mad home He’s a promising horse despatched by Parks Racing, and after simply successful by 2 3/4 lengths in his debut race within the graded race, he’ll face a tricky class check. Madhouse, a 3-year-old, has by no means received off the tempo and can face numerous stress earlier than the Nov. 1 race at Del Mar, however he might win a minor prize at a excessive value. massive metropolis lights He’s a really quick sprinter for Corridor of Fame coach Richard Mandela, however he has by no means received above the G3 degree in his first begin for the reason that Breeders’ Cup Dash on January 18th. I do not suppose Stoll Keenon Ogden is the winner of the Phoenix Stakes. Nakatomi or winner of the Vozbara Stakes patriot spirit Quick sufficient to beat this group.
primarily based in japan american stage and puro magic Bringing some intrigue, the previous has by no means received a graded race and the latter has first desire within the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash and is winless in a single begin on the principle monitor.
lady tamara and copy had been included within the pre-entry for the Breeders’ Cup Dash, however each are listed as first desire for the PNC Financial institution Breeders’ Cup Filly Dash. For those who’re focusing on the Breeders’ Cup Dash towards a stallion, you will wish to goal Berry Refined (1987), Safely Stored (1990) and Desert Stormer (1995) as filly winners on this race. The introduction of the Breeders’ Cup Mare Dash in 2007 resulted in a decline in feminine participation within the Breeders’ Cup Dash. Copion completed second in the latest Grade 2 race over a distance of 1 1/16 miles, whereas Tamara returned from greater than 10 months off to win in a six-and-a-half furlong dash. I like each in mare sprints.
