Of the various gifted horses pre-entered for the 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, which one is almost definitely to win? Historical past might help decide the reply. Wanting again over the many years of historical past of the Breeders’ Cup Turf reveals some sturdy developments that bettors can use to rank the highest contenders.
Listed below are eight historic angles to remember as you handicap the Breeders’ Cup Turf scheduled for Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Stretch runners are advantageous
It is uncommon for a quick horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. In actual fact, 11 of the final 15 horses (73%) have raced in fifth place or worse after half a mile of the lead, together with 9 (53%) who got here from the rear half.
yr | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and three/4 mile instances (Course standing) |
2024 | insurgent romance | 3rd 1 horse size distinction (13 starters) | :48.77, 1:13.82 (firmly) |
2023 | Auguste Rodin | 8th 4.25 size distinction (11 starters) | :48.79, 1:12.66 (firmly) |
2022 | insurgent romance | 10th 8.25 size distinction (13 starters) | :49.42, 1:14.15 (firmly) |
2021 | evil | 13th 13.5 size distinction (14 starters) | :48.38, 1:12.41 (firmly) |
2020 | Tarnawa | 8th 6.75 size distinction (10 starters) | :51.06, 1:15.99 (firmly) |
2019 | brick and mortar | 7th 2.75 size distinction (12 starters) | :48.44, 1:13.26 (firmly) |
2018 | allow | 6th 5 horse size distinction (13 starters) | :49.11, 1:14.22 (good) |
2017 | amulet | 5th 3.5 size distinction (13 starters) | :48.33, 1:12.86 (firmly) |
2016 | highland reel | 1cent 2.5 size distinction (12 starters) | :48.00, 1:12.70 (firmly) |
2015 | Discovered | 7th 26.75 size distinction (12 starters) | :48.38, 1:12.64 (good) |
2014 | important sequence | 9th 4 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :47.76, 1:11.15 (good) |
2013 | magician | 11th 14.5 size distinction (12 starters) | :46.94, 1:10.67 (firmly) |
2012 | little mike | 3rd 3.5 size distinction (12 starters) | :46.77, 1:10.80 (firmly) |
2011 | St. Nicholas Monastery | 5th 3 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :50.09, 1:14.67 (good) |
2010 | harmful midge | 2n.d. 2 horse size distinction (7 starters) | :50.17, 1:15.91 (firmly) |
Horse betting favourite is doing nicely
The favourite has completed fourth or higher in 15 of the previous 17 Breeders’ Cup Turf races, a outstanding efficiency for the reason that Turf usually attracts massive, aggressive fields. The Breeders’ Cup Turf favourite has been notably formidable lately, successful 4 of the seven tournaments since 2018.
Deal with horses based mostly abroad
Breeders’ Cup Turf is dominated by horses based mostly exterior of North America. Of the previous 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners, 21 (78%) have been Raiders from abroad. This development has been notably sturdy over the previous decade, with solely Bricks and Mortar (2019) successful in North America.
Irish-Breeding horses are probably the most profitable
Twenty-six of the 42 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (62%) had been bred exterior of North America, together with 9 of the final 10 (90%). The vast majority of these international horse winners (18) had been from Eire, which produces extra Breeders’ Cup Turf winners than some other nation.
Wager on horses skilled by O’Brien and Appleby
Jockey Aidan O’Brien has received the Breeders’ Cup Turf a file seven instances, all with Irish horses. He has received 5 instances prior to now 14 years: Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Lille (2016), Discovered (2015), Magicians (2013) and St. Nicholas Abbey (2011). Of the 36 horses O’Brien entered within the Breeders’ Cup Turf, 18 (50%) completed within the high three.
Charlie Appleby equally had a robust exhibiting on the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Appleby has raced simply six horses in 4 turf races and has three wins in Evil (2021) and Rebels Romance (2022 and 2024).
buickDettori and Moore are main jockeys.
Three energetic jockeys have notably sturdy leads to the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
William Buick has ridden the Turf six instances and has two wins in Evil (2021) and Rebels Romance (2024). His win charge is 33%.
Jockey Frankie Dettori has received 5 of twenty-two races on turf, a successful proportion of 23%.
Ryan Moore’s file is the very best. He has ridden 15 instances on grass, recording 5 wins, 4 seconds, three thirds and two quarters. His successful proportion is 33%, with 93% of his mounts ending within the high 4.
Grade/Group 1 winners prevail
Since 2000, 22 of the 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (85%) have raced as confirmed Group 1 winners or Group 1 winners.
Mares and mares are doing nicely
Fillies and fillies are comparatively rare within the Breeders’ Cup Turf, having solely run within the race 15 instances prior to now 10 years. Nonetheless, he recorded three wins throughout that interval due to Discovered (2015), Allow (2018) and Tarnawa (2020). Even higher, the filly and filly went 1-2 in each 2018 and 2020.
conclusion
Previous developments point out that 3-year-old fillies are the almost definitely. minnie hawk He’s thought of the favourite to win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Skilled by Aidan O’Brien, the Irish-bred mare has excelled in Europe this yr, successful back-to-back G1 Irish Oaks, English Oaks and G1 Yorkshire Oaks, earlier than ending a detailed second to her male rivals within the coveted G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Judging by this spectacular run of races, Minnie Hawk will very probably be the heavy favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The historic blow to Minnie Hawk is small. She has proven extra pace than a typical Breeders’ Cup Turf winner and can probably be ridden by Christophe Soumillon, as her common rider, Ryan Moore, is out with an harm. Nonetheless, the latter chance isn’t a trigger for concern as Somillion received the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf with Scirocco, making him one in every of solely two horses ever ridden within the Turf.
insurgent romance It additionally matches the standard profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner. It is a good match since he has already received this race twice. The globetrotting Irish horse is skilled by Charlie Appleby and can probably be saddled by William Buick.
The detrimental facets of Rebels Romance’s historic profile are minor. He has extra early pace than many turf winners, is neither a filly nor a filly, and will not be the favourite if Minnie Hawk runs. Nonetheless, if Minnie Hawk withdraws, Rebels Romance would probably begin as a favourite, cementing him as a robust successful menace based mostly on historic perspective.
Please contemplate your handicap and benefit from the race.
