Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile. Every week, we spotlight latest winners of the Street to the Derby schedule, the place horses earn factors towards qualifying for the 1 1/4-mile traditional race on Might 2, 2026 at Churchill Downs.
This week, we’ll take a more in-depth have a look at Ted Nophyreceived the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Introduced by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance by one size on Oct. 31 at Del Mar. The two-year-old colt, the de facto champion, leads the Street to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 factors.
Race abstract: Ted Nophy has been good to date. The horse received all 4 begins by greater than a size and secured his third straight G1 win within the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, cementing his Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old colt.
His Breeders’ Cup victory by one size was adopted by an eight-and-a-half size victory within the seven-furlong Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes and a two-and-a-half size victory within the 1.16-mile Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
Ted Nophy chased Brandt, the 4-5 favourite within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, from the second-favorite spot, coming inside a half-length of winner Delmar Futurity, who ran the half-mile in 46.99 seconds. He took the lead beneath common rider John Velazquez and completed the ultimate quarter mile in 25.23 seconds, simply defeating second place Mr. AP.
“I felt very assured,” Velasquez stated. “He is a simple horse to experience, that is actually it. You let him do his factor and he is blissful as a result of he is finished all of the races.”
Pace numbers: Ted Nophy received the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a career-best 114 Equibase pace determine, bettering 10 factors from his earlier finest set at Hopeful. each day racing type Beyer Pace Figures deemed this Juvenile to be on par together with his earlier two Group 1 wins, as he had 98 factors in Hopeful and 97 factors in each Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. These are quick pace numbers for a 2-year-old horse within the fall.
Operating model: Ted Nofi has unbelievable tactical pace and is ready to stalk or pounce on Velasquez when given the sign. It is a working model that can assist keep away from bother within the Kentucky Derby prep race, and its excessive cruising pace will likely be a giant plus within the 20-horse Kentucky Derby.
Pedigree notes: Ted Nophy is the proprietor of Spendthrift Farm’s excellent stallion Into Mischief, who has been North America’s main sire yearly since 2019. Into Mischief leads Not This Time in 2025 offspring earnings by greater than $7.7 million, and has been within the prime slot for the seventh 12 months in a row.
Into Mischief is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Yr Genuine, 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Mandalone, 2025 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets, and DraftKings Travers Stakes winner Sovereignty. Sovereignty has an excellent probability of giving Into Mischief his second Horse of the Yr as a stallion, and Ted Nophy and Sovereignty ought to win the Eclipse Award within the 2-year-old male and 3-year-old male classes respectively.
Ted Nophy’s dam is Streak of Luck, a grade 2-place stakes winner out of Previous Usual. Streak of Rack’s stakes wins, like her two main wins, came to visit one mile on turf.
Ted Nophy, a two-time winner of the 1 1/16 mile, ought to be capable of excel on the 1 1/8 mile, however then, like many athletes, the true check of distance will come when he tackles the 1 1/4 mile for the primary time.
Derby prospects: Solely two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners (Road Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015) have received the Kentucky Derby. This exhibits not solely how tough it’s for an elite 2-year-old to keep up his type via the primary Saturday in Might, but in addition how tough it’s to win the Kentucky Derby. It is a huge area with loads of potential for adversity, together with sluggish begins, unhealthy climate, visitors, tempo and the screaming of 150,000 followers, so successful the primary jewel of the Triple Crown would require a mix of completely conditioned three-year-old Thoroughbreds and the roll of the cube.
Ted Nophy has all of the components you need in a long-term outlook, however six months is an eternity in horse racing and getting a horse to race in prime situation is solely an amazing problem. Will Ted Nophy change into the third horse to brush the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby? After all…however as at all times, the other opinion is more likely.
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