Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile. Every week, we spotlight latest winners of the Highway to the Derby schedule, the place horses earn factors towards qualifying for the 1 1/4-mile traditional race on Might 2, 2026 at Churchill Downs.
This week, we take a more in-depth have a look at the litmus take a look at that resulted in a 1/4-length victory within the $200,500 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 13 at Los Alamitos. He earned 10 factors within the litmus take a look at and moved into second place on the Highway to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a complete of 19 qualifying factors.
Race abstract: Litmus Take a look at, a yearling bought in 2024 for $875,000, set the tempo in his profession debut Aug. 16, 2025 at Del Mar, popping out late to win by three-quarters of a size. He then fought for the lead, ending fourth within the G1 Del Mar Futurity in September by 4 and 1 / 4 lengths, and third within the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October by 5 lengths. He proved unbeatable on the Group 1 stage in his final two begins, received by the extremely regarded Blount and Ted Nophy, respectively, however was additionally a litmus take a look at and was no risk to both winner at that time in his profession.
On the TAA FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Litmus Take a look at was despatched off for a protracted shot of 21.70-1. At first look, his 4th place within the Breeders’ Cup could not seem to be an enormous step ahead, however he misplaced by simply 3/4 of a size and set a brand new profession finest pace report.
Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert introduced again the litmus take a look at throughout a six-week break on the Los Alamitos Futurity, and the Nyquist colt continued his enchancment with an expert win from simply off the tempo because the 3-5 favourite ridden by Juan Hernandez. He took purpose at pacesetter Provenance getting into the straight and dominated his bold opponent, holding off a late problem from second-placed Blacksmith to win. He accomplished the 1 1/16 mile in 1 minute, 42.38 seconds, incomes his first stakes victory.
“He was in a very good place. He seemed relaxed. You would inform by wanting on the again that he was answerable for the race,” Baffert stated. “He is nonetheless just a little blue, however Juan advised me the additional away the higher.”
Pace numbers: After incomes Equibase Pace Figures within the 91-92 vary in every of his first three begins, his litmus take a look at rating rose considerably to 111 within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His Equibase Pace numbers dropped a bit at Los Alamitos Futurity to 103.
The Beyer velocity numbers present a litmus linear development thus far: 78-82-89-95-96. The 95 he earned within the Breeders’ Cup and the 96 he earned within the Los Alamitos Futurity are high quality numbers for a December 2-year-old. He recorded his finest pace numbers after six weeks of relaxation, so the litmus take a look at qualifies him to take one other step ahead in his subsequent begin if he’s given related relaxation.
Working model: Litmus Take a look at set the tempo and slowed down within the last levels of the Breeders’ Futurity, however has been pushing or chasing the tempo in every of the opposite 4 races. At Los Alamitos Futurity, his tactical pace allowed him to beat a considerably sluggish begin by advancing from the within after two horses went exterior on the first nook. Litmus Take a look at cornered Provenance from a few size behind him on the backstretch, establishing his dream journey. Tactical pace is extraordinarily helpful in races just like the Kentucky Derby, the place as much as 20 3-year-old horses compete.
Pedigree notes: Litmus Take a look at is the sixth offspring of 2015 champion 2-year-old Nyquist, 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and sire of U.S. champion Immersive and Vequist, 2025 Breeders’ Cup Grime Mile winner Nisos, 2025 Preakness runner-up Gozgar and a number of G1 winner Random Mize.
Litmus Take a look at is sired by the Malibu Moon mare Research Laborious, a full sister (similar sire and dam) to a number of graded stakes winner Candy August Moon. Studihard missed out in three races.
Derby prospects: After October’s Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, I had all however forgotten in regards to the litmus take a look at, however the bay colt shocked me together with his final two races, reminding me that racehorses develop and progress individually. Particularly, Beyer’s pace numbers (95-96) in these two begins are elite for a 2-year-old Thoroughbred in December, and he appears to be like like a stallion who will achieve expertise, be taught, and get higher.
The litmus take a look at, however, did not finish fairly as shortly at Los Alamitos Futurity, with the ultimate 1/sixteenth mile taking 6.53 seconds and the ultimate 5/sixteenth mile taking about 31 and a half seconds. He might want to present extra late punches. In my view, the litmus take a look at places him within the second tier of December Kentucky Derby contenders, and I believe he is heading in the right direction. I am not able to make a future wager on him simply but, however the litmus take a look at is unquestionably price monitoring intently.
