Justin Gaethje is at an obstacle in opposition to Paddy Pimblett and could not be happier. Justin Gaethje has constructed a profitable profession in a job that many fighters concern. With interim light-weight title gold on the road at UFC 324 on January twenty fourth at T-Cell Area in Las Vegas, The Spotlight as soon as once more finds himself mathematically underdog in opposition to Paddy Pimblett, whose positioning aligns completely along with his.
The betting traces mirror in Pimblett’s favor, with sportsbooks and UK bookmakers itemizing Gaethje at +160 (later adjusted to +185), whereas Pimblett is listed at -213 (later adjusted to -215). This unfold signifies that Gaethje must threat $100 to return a revenue of $160, however he must threat $213 to win $100 to again Pimblett.
Justin Gaethje talks about being an underdog to Paddy Pimblett
Gaethje’s relationship to underdog standing goes past mere psychology and motivational rhetoric. His UFC report reveals him to be a constant performer when dealing with betting favorites. In 14 UFC fights from 2017 to March 2025, Gaethje had no less than 9 or 10 fights the place the bookmakers favored his opponent. Extra instantly, Gaethje’s report exhibits he has gained 4 of seven fights as an underdog within the UFC, a hit fee inconsistent with the mathematical precedence given to his opponents.
This statistical truth speaks to Gaethje’s confidence going into the combat in opposition to Pimblett. When requested in regards to the construction of the chances, he supplied an unfiltered perspective. Chatting with Submission Radio, he defined:
“After I regarded on the odds and knew Paddy was the favourite, I cherished this recreation. You do not get right here except you are stingy. Individuals who say I am unable to do one thing are the rationale I am nonetheless right here. Individuals who consider in me, who say I am unable to do one thing, encourage me and I will fail, individuals who inform me I haven’t got it, push me to rise up within the morning and put a hearth underneath my ass. Individuals do not perceive how loopy this recreation is. That is what I feel.” I have been the underdog no less than 9 or 10 instances out of my 14 fights within the UFC, and I want being the underdog for almost all of them. ”
Gaethje’s observe report in opposition to elite-level grapplers particularly addresses the central tactical issues surrounding this matchup. Pimblett earned a title shot with spectacular hanging and floor management, driving a seven-fight profitable streak within the UFC, together with a third-round TKO victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 314 in April 2025. The British fighter information 22 profitable takedowns out of 88 makes an attempt in UFC bouts, giving him a 25% success fee. His submission assault is paying off, with 10 submission wins accounting for 44% of his general wins.
Nonetheless, Gaethje’s grappling credentials can stand up to scrutiny, even when he faces occasional difficulties on the mat. His most vital submission loss got here in opposition to an opponent with an distinctive pedigree. Charles Oliveira, then-vacant light-weight titleholder, gained with a rear-naked choke in Might 2022 after shaking Gaethje and forcing him onto his again. Khabib Nurmagomedov, who defeated Gaethje by way of triangle choke in October 2020, represented a really totally different opponent. Khabib’s positional management strain created submission alternatives by smothering high management quite than a standard takedown trade. However the American-born athlete is not nervous. He continued:
“Individuals say the best way Paddy wins is on the bottom. If he takes me down, that is the place he takes me down. They neglect how good I’m as a grappler. The largest matches I’ve ever had had been in opposition to essentially the most elite grapplers. I had my issues, however the best way Charles Oliveira received me to the bottom was by shaking me and sitting me down with punches.
“Khabib was a very totally different problem. For the reason that Oliveira combat, I have been coaching a lot jiu-jitsu and grappling, and I am truly having fun with it greater than ever. I haven’t got any want to grapple, however I’ve no issues within the grappling area. My skill to not let folks convey me down is second to none. He must compromise me with punches, kicks and knees. You by no means know – I’ll in all probability sub him. Something is feasible, even when it is 1,000,000 to 1. ”
Odds’ positioning stays mathematically sound given Pimblett’s present type and up to date dominance. The British fighter enters the combat with confidence as an up-and-coming title contender, backed by an undefeated UFC report and iconic wins over established opponents. Nonetheless, Gaethje’s historic efficiency as an underdog, his distinctive tactical benefit in hanging quantity, and legit enchancment in his grappling since 2022 created the precise situation that facilitated essentially the most formidable efficiency of his profession.
