2026 Kentucky Derby Prediction Profile: Gun Runner Stakes Winner Chip Honcho

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Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile. Every week, here’s a take a look at horses that not too long ago received races on the Woodford Reserve schedule’s “Street to the Kentucky Derby,” which qualifies them for the 1 1/4-mile Derby on Might 2, 2026 at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a better take a look at chip honchowinner of the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes on the Fairgrounds on December twentieth. Chip Honcho earned his first 10 factors on the highway to the Kentucky Derby, rating him twelfth.th Featured on the most recent Churchill Downs leaderboard.

Race abstract: Chip Honcho hasn’t had a nasty race but in three profession begins. The horse made his debut within the seven-furlong opening race at Keeneland on October 16, overcoming a gradual begin and posting a great rally to complete second, two and three-quarters of a size behind odds-on favourite Dr. Kapur. He returned to Churchill Downs in the course of the fall meet on November 20, and was a 1.70-to-1 favourite within the first race, held at a mile per mile on a muddy, paved course. The colt benefited from a a lot better begin and was capable of get out of the sector early and set a strong however comparatively pressure-free tempo via the turns underneath jockey Jose Ortiz, and regardless of being put to work late, he fought off the problem of second place to win by 1 1/4 lengths.

Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen despatched Chip Honcho to the Fairgrounds for Gun Runner, the place he obtained the companies of third-time jockey Paco Lopez. Chip Honcho, who made his first try across the second nook, positioned himself simply behind and on the surface of pace-setting Clown the Buckeye, and Lopez stored a good rein on his horse all through the backstretch, with the chief scoring an sincere fraction. Chip Honcho held second place firstly of the homestretch and steadily chased down Crown the Buckeye within the remaining 16 rounds to win the favored Liberty Nationwide by three-quarters of a size. Liberty Nationwide bounced again within the second half to take second place by a head over Crown the Buckeye. The ultimate time for 1 1/16 miles was a gradual 1:44.76.

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Velocity ​​numbers: Chip Honcho step by step improved from the 83 factors he earned in his first two races to 89 factors, as measured by Gun Runner’s Equibase Velocity ​​Determine sample. His Beyer pace figures have held regular at 81-82-81 via three races, and because it stands, this proficient colt is a number of notches beneath the perfect of his sire. After all, there may be loads of time to enhance as you mature.

Working model: Chip Honcho’s first win at Churchill Downs got here from the entrance, and it was spectacular to see him get to the entrance and set a strong tempo on the hills. He repelled a lightweight problem from the 45.93-1 longshot Marauder (additionally skilled by Asmussen) and tied once more on the end, with the win to the end giving the winner and runner-up first and second place on all name factors.

Chip Honcho, who stretched out to show two in Gun Runner, was instructed by Paco Lopez to make use of a pace-pressing technique, pulling on the reins proper after the beginning and once more for a very long time on the backstretch to remain simply behind the main Crown the Buckeye. The stallion confirmed his versatility and was capable of snatch victory in simply his third race. Truthfully, it appeared prefer it was extra a results of Clown the Buckeyes tiring within the second half than Chip Honcho’s explosive pace.

Pedigree notes: Chip Honcho is a son of the younger stallion Join, who was an excellent middle-distance dust horse who received the Cigar Mile Handicap and the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby in 2016. Join is sired by Carlin, a number one sire who received Horse of the 12 months twice within the late 2000s, and whereas he typically provides his offspring stamina, he has to date been most profitable as a sire of his personal horses, together with milers and middle-distance dust horses (his finest being most likely Rattle N’ Roll, who earned $2.3 million).

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Chip Honcho’s dam is Miss My Rose, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician. Miss My Rose ran solely twice, profitable each the six-furlong opener and the seven-furlong stakes at Santa Anita Park. Stamina influences run deep in Curlin and Magician’s pedigree, however total Chip Honcho has the excellence of being a horse that performs finest over distances of about seven furlongs to a mile or so.

Derby potentialities: Chip Honcho began his profession in spectacular vogue with 2 wins and 1 loss, displaying his capability to go off the tempo and win on his first stakes attempt en path to the Derby 152. That stated, he should run a lot sooner over the following four-plus months to be a contender for the Traditional, and given his late end within the Gun Runner Stakes and his pedigree, there are questions on how he’ll cope over lengthy distances. From what I can see, this proficient colt seems extra suited to the undercard Pat Day Mile Stakes Introduced by SAP at Churchill on Might 2 than the mile-and-four-minute Kentucky Derby itself.

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