On this function, we take a capsule have a look at three horses who’re sizzling within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose probabilities on the 2026 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve aren’t as sturdy as they as soon as had been.
The primary version of this weblog for the 2026 Rose Run will deal with what has modified because the starting of the brand new 12 months.
Heating
1. strategic threat
Strategic Threat has some work to do when it comes to bettering his pace numbers, however I actually favored the best way he gained the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January 3 by 4 and a half lengths. He accomplished the ultimate 400 meters in an attention grabbing 23.78 seconds. That is a formidable ending pace for a 3-year-old horse that accomplished two corners in January. He then ran a 9-length romp within the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sires in Actuality Stakes at Gulfstream Park on November 29, 2025, ridden by Corridor of Fame coach Mark Casse. You will not discover a Noble Chicken stallion out of Afleet Alex’s mare within the Trendy pedigree record, however his pedigree reveals he has no issues with stamina. No Boulevard’s 4 stakes wins have come at distances from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles, and Strategic Threat comes from the household that produced Champion Inside Data and Smuggler, in addition to G1 winner Educated Threat. This helps clarify why he was working as quick as he might within the second half of Smarty Jones. Subsequent up is the $1 million Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on January thirty first.
2. So Completely happy
Because the races get longer on the Kentucky Derby course, it is pure to be skeptical about So Completely happy’s probabilities of persevering with to excel. His father, Run Completely happy, is a champion sprinter however has but to run a race longer than seven-eighths of a mile. Nevertheless, the start of his two dates was Actually good. The horse gained his debut by 3/4 size at Del Mar on November twenty second, beating 9 different horses, and on January tenth at Santa Anita Park, he got here again from final of 5 to win the G2 San Vicente Stakes by two lengths. Educated by Mark Glatt, So Completely happy ran professionally in his second begin beneath Corridor of Fame jockey Mike Smith. He reacted when requested to speed up, switching leads in the beginning of the part and had sufficient gas to carry off probably favourite Buetan for the part. He earned an Equibase Pace Determine of 106, a Beyer Pace Determine of 96, and a 9 (decrease is best) within the Lagozine seat at San Vicente. So Completely happy’s dam, So Canning, is a sire of 2010 Breeders’ Cup Basic winner Blame, who gained the dash twice earlier than ending only one mile quick within the closing race. So Completely happy’s grandmother (maternal grandmother), So Glitzy, had three wins at mile to 1 1/8 miles and was seated in Grade 3 at 1 1/8 miles. Completely happy may be capable to tackle the space problem.
3.Nearly
In a seven-furlong allowance possibility race at Gulfstream Park on January 2nd, Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher held his personal towards three horses by 5 lengths and nearly adopted up his first win by 9 1/4 lengths. It is pure to surprise who gained in that quick race, and he hasn’t raced in something aside from dash races but, however the Not This Time colt appears to be bettering with every begin, along with his most up-to-date win being an Equibase Pace Determine of 95, a Beyer Pace Determine of 96, and a 7 1/2 in Lagogin Seat, and the numbers bear out the attention take a look at. His dam, Ib Prospecting, was a sprinter, sired by 2003 Horse of the 12 months Mineshaft, however when you dig just a little deeper Neary is an excellent stallion from a household with some class and stamina.
This additionally applies to: chief wallaby He was the final man right here in an in depth race with Neary for the third and closing slot. Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott’s stallion, Structure, gained his debut race by a size and a half at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 10 at 1 mile and seven/8, displaying good pace numbers of 98 Equibase, 88 Beyer, and eight 1/2 Lagogin. He is a participant to look at. … Stakes winner skilled by Brad Cox instruction (Mucho Macho Man Stakes, January 3 Gulf Stream) my world (Jerome S, January 3, Aqueduct) Sturdy consideration was wanted to complete within the high 3, however the pace numbers for each had been just a little mild. …Equally, I really like Leconte Stakes winners Mr. Golden Tempo Blessed with pedigree, he overcame his pace bias in rallies and gained by three-quarters of a size on the Fairgrounds on January seventeenth, nevertheless it was not at all a quick race. …It’s additionally price mentioning coach Todd Pletcher. jackson gapwas bought as a yearling for $1.3 million and improved to 2-2 by ending 5 1/2 lengths first within the 1 1/16 mile run on the Fairgrounds on January seventeenth.
settle down
1. Universe
Universe enters 2026 with motive for optimism after ending third within the G1 Champagne Stakes and second within the G2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes as a 2-year-old. The International Marketing campaign stallion, who made his first begin of the 12 months within the Smarty Jones Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on January third, didn’t reside as much as expectations, shedding to the winner Strategic Threat by 11 and 1/4 lengths, ending in a threatening seventh place. Smarty Jones’ Equibase Pace Determine Universe rating of 74 was the worst of his five-race profession. Extra effort might be wanted in coach Kenny McPeek’s subsequent begin.
2. Buckeye Crown
Crown the Buckeye, who gained two stakes as a 2-year-old, misplaced to 3rd place by simply three-quarters of a size within the Gun Runner Stakes on the Fairgrounds on Dec. 20, his final begin of 2025. The horse completed his younger season with two wins out of 4 races, one second place and three third locations. The Ohio-bred’s first try at a serious prize stakes proved to be too tough a problem. Within the G3 Lecomte Stakes held on the Fairgrounds on January 17, he picked up his tempo, however misplaced eight and a half lengths to Golden Tempo in a race that favored pace, and stalled when he ran in eighth place. Though he’s a gifted racehorse, he will not be nearly as good on the main prize degree.
3. Chip Honcho
Gun Runner Stakes winner Chip Honcho was unable to capitalize on his pretty straightforward tempo within the G3 Leconte Stakes on the Fairgrounds on January 17, choosing up the tempo from the skin earlier than aiming for the end close to the beginning of the straight. Jockey Paco Lopez appeared assured, peering beneath his armpits to examine on his competitors, however he was unable to get previous decided pacesetter Carson Avenue and in the end gave option to deep nearer Mesquite (second place) and winner Golden Tempo. He got here in 4th place with a distinction of three/4 size, which was removed from a disastrous consequence, nevertheless it was a race the place the highest horses didn’t pursue one another in a straight line, and he was unable to overhaul Carson Avenue in a straight line. Maybe this might be a race for him to be taught from…
Observe: epic summer season He confirmed promise in a formidable debut on the Huge A Belmont on Oct. 26, setting a high-pressure tempo earlier than pulling away by three and 1 / 4 lengths. His first try at a stakes race confirmed he may have extra expertise. Within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes held at Gulfstream Park on January 3, Epic Summer season briefly took the lead within the entrance of the straight, however drained and misplaced to fifth place, 13 3/4 lengths behind.
