The Australian Open ladies’s closing can be performed on Saturday between world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Jelena Rybakina. Sabalenka has gained two titles in Melbourne, but it surely was Rybakina who lately defeated Sabalenka when the 2 met on the year-end WTA Finals.
Who will win? Our consultants will analyze it for you.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Rybakina?
Darcy Fundamental: There’s just one downside for Sabalenka heading into her fourth consecutive closing in Melbourne: nerves.
Her play has been nice over the previous two weeks and all season, with an 11-game profitable streak heading into the finals. Not solely that, Sabalenka has but to drop a set in 2026. Clearly, she has a recreation left to win her fifth main title and third on the Australian Open, however she has struggled emotionally in main finals earlier than (see final yr’s Australian Open and French Open) and at occasions appears clouded by the load of the second. She turned issues round whereas competing for the trophy eventually season’s US Open, however might want to discover the identical psychological power and readability on Saturday to safe victory.
Jake Michaels: Is it too simplistic to say she ought to simply hold doing what she’s been doing for the previous two weeks? Perhaps. Nonetheless, Sabalenka has not dropped a set in six matches and is enjoying her traditional ruthless, ultra-aggressive type of tennis, leaving all her opponents with no solutions. A lot has been stated about her temperament and composure in moments of strain, however let’s not neglect that just some days in the past she turned the primary participant within the Open period to win 20 consecutive tiebreaks. It is a puzzling quantity, and speaks volumes about how she was in a position to change the narrative across the psychological facet of the sport.
Jarrid Barça: Sabalenka’s blueprint isn’t that sophisticated and the take a look at is to carry out it below strain and expectations, however she failed it final yr. She is the most effective participant on the earth and a two-time Melbourne champion, but it surely goes with out saying that every one seven of her main titles have come on laborious courts. There is a cause why she’s gained 20 of her final 21 video games right here and we have to keep in mind that, personal that and lean into it. Tactically, attacking Rybakina’s second serve and never letting her settle into comfy holds or quick rallies can even be key. If Sabalenka can do this, she is going to be capable of apply early strain and draw opponents into engagements, the place her robust shot-making can take over and permit her to be aggressive and take time away. Above all, she must be herself and show her authority early.
What can Rybakina do to defeat Sabalenka?
Maine: No girl since Wimbledon has gained as many matches as Rybakina. It was spectacular to look at her rediscover her health and confidence after a number of challenges on and off the court docket. A lot of her success has come from her serve, and she or he might want to benefit from that power in opposition to Sabalenka. There have been some shaky moments on this event, particularly in opposition to Iga Swiatek within the quarter-finals and Jessica Pegula within the semi-finals, however Sabalenka, whose highly effective hitting and aggressive type of play will be matched, can not afford to let such lapses happen. Rybakina’s first serve might be the important thing, and she or he might want to obtain a excessive share in that class to safe a win.
Rybakina hit 13 aces and gained 72.3 p.c of her first serves to win the title, so their final assembly within the year-end Tour Championship closing in November might present one thing of a blueprint. She wants an identical efficiency on Saturday to win her second main title.
Michaels: A lot of Rybakina’s success on this event, and in different tournaments for that matter, will rely upon her serve. It is one of many greatest forces in ladies’s competitors right now, and one which has earned her tons of low-cost factors all through her profession. Rybakina hit a tournament-record 41 service aces en path to the ultimate, nearly twice as many as Sabalenka. And it wasn’t simply because she performed extra tennis: Rybakina additionally superior to Saturday’s featured match with out dropping a set. She additionally wins 74% of her factors as soon as the primary serve is in play.
We noticed the blueprint for the way to beat Sabalenka within the Australian Open closing 12 months in the past. Robust hitter Madison Keys matched the ability and aggression that got here from the opposite facet of the online, always irritating the world primary.
Ryvaquina has all of the instruments to repeat the administration.
balsa: If anybody has the instruments to defeat Sabalenka proper now, it is Rybakina. She matches her in energy, hits her groundstrokes simply as cleanly, and has but to drop a set this event. Nevertheless it wasn’t with out some shaky moments, together with a second-set tiebreak with Pegula after an early match level. Rybakina’s victory will come from her serve. She was the most effective server on the draw and hit extra aces than anybody, however she might want to scale back her excessive first serve share to win free factors and stop Sabalenka from discovering a rhythm on returns. From there, it is all about selection. Combine it up, change the tempo, transfer Sabalenka in several instructions, mess up the timing, and decide the appropriate time to assault. If Rybakina can management the tempo, that is greater than she is able to, and she or he could also be tough to cease.
Who will win?
Maine: If their assembly within the 2023 Australian Open closing is any indication, this rematch might be epic. And as we have seen in nearly each convention to this point, this one actually might go both means. However whereas Sabalenka has the lead total within the collection, Rybakina really leads head-to-head matches on laborious courts, 6-5, and has gained 4 of her previous 5 matches on surfaces. Maybe most impressively, of their final match on the 2025 WTA Finals, Rybakina defeated the queen of tiebreakers, Sabalenka, in a tiebreak to assert the title.
There is not any doubt that Sabalenka is eager to reclaim her title in Melbourne and has performed like a participant on a mission all through the Australian summer season, however there’s one thing about Rybakina’s quiet dedication and up to date resurgence that I simply cannot get sufficient of. Rybakina was shut in three units.
Michaels: The predictions about Sabalenka weren’t all that daring earlier than the event began, so it will be silly to leap in now. That being stated, this closing seems like a real 50/50 affair, and each ladies might make a powerful case for lifting the trophy.
I really feel that have may be very prone to be the deciding issue. That is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open closing and seventh consecutive closing at a tough court docket main event. Rybakina, however, has not performed in a Slam closing since shedding to Sabalenka within the closing at Melbourne Park in 2023. Since then, and earlier than this event, her finest comeback at a tough court docket main was a fourth-round look. Sabalenka fought an in depth and fascinating three units.
balsa: Sabalenka deserves constructive evaluations, however she shouldn’t accomplish that with out hesitation. She led the head-to-head 8-6, owned Melbourne greater than anybody else, and entered the event as my decide to hoist the trophy. However Rybakina has all the time been harmful, and now that feels much more true. Rybakina has gained 19 of her final 20 matches courting again to the top of final season and has gained 9 straight in opposition to top-10 opponents. Confirming her straight wins over Swiatek and Pegula is a big assertion, and she or he additionally owns the latest benefit of defeating Sabalenka within the WTA Finals title match. However there’s one thing about Melbourne and the way a lot it means to Sabalenka. Historical past and legacy are at stake, to not point out recovering from shedding a recreation they most likely ought to have gained in 2025. It is energy in opposition to energy and all of the makings of a three-set epic, however I would follow world primary Sabalenka.
