This 12 months’s million greenback version southwest stakes The Oaklawn Park Horse Races on February sixth attracted a extremely aggressive 3-year-old race, with 13 horses scheduled to run after the morning’s favourite Litmus Take a look at. A complete of 42 qualifying factors are at stake within the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve, distributed among the many prime 5 finishes on a 20-10-6-4-2 level scale. Since 1991, Southwest has produced three Kentucky Derby winners. Lil E. Tee completed third in 1992 after which upset the Derby at odds of 16.80 to 1, whereas Smarty Jones in 2004 and most not too long ago Mystic Dan in 2024 accomplished the Southwest/Derby double. This 12 months’s renewal of the 1 1/16 mile is shaping as much as be a beautiful betting race, providing an early glimpse of the primary Saturday in Could with lower than 100 days remaining till the 152nd race.n.d. Working within the Kentucky Derby.
Beneath is a view of the sphere from the within (rail) publish location.
Reclamation will earn the within publish place and make his third begin at Oaklawn Park. The horse was educated regionally by Christopher Davis and gained by 4 lengths in his first race. Deecord can be a first-time winner, making his second profession begin following a dominant efficiency in his profession debut, the place he gained by 8 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn Racecourse and earned a 107 Equibase Velocity Determine, the best within the discipline. The son of Speightstown is educated by Ray Ashford Jr. and will probably be changed by Luis Saez on Friday. Buetan was unable to journey to Gulfstream Park for final weekend’s Holy Bull Stakes because of climate, making this his first begin since ending runner-up within the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park in early January. Coach Bob Baffert has gained the Southwest Stakes six instances. Educated by Brad Cox, Rancho Santa Fe began his profession on the Kentucky circuit with an ideal 2-2 report and completed a distant fifth within the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oak Garden in early January. Circle Faucet, one in every of two horses that coach Dallas Stewart has posted a 30-1 report within the morning, made his first try on the 1 1/16-mile filth route at Oak Garden in late December, incomes his first win in his fifth profession race. Maxfield-bred Liberty Nationwide completed second within the Gun Runner Stakes final held on the Fairgrounds on December twentieth. The Kenny McPeak coach made his second profession begin using Friday with rider Brian Hernandez Jr., who took his first win by 4 lengths and 1 / 4 over this 1 1/16-mile distance at Churchill Racecourse. Dallas Stewart’s second horse, Spirit of Royal, additionally took his first profession win on the filth monitor for the primary time and began his profession in second place. January 2nd, sixth at Oak Garden.
Strategic Threat has gained back-to-back stakes over the past 1 1/16 miles, profitable stakes by a complete of 13 and a half lengths. This consists of the earlier race, Smarty Jones S, ridden by the exceptional Mark Casse steady, who has gained 11 of 23 races at Oak Garden Racecourse. Javier Castellano, who had ridden Strategic Threat in his earlier two begins, held the mount. Bricklin continued to select up velocity within the lead-in race when he gained by 3 1/4 lengths within the Allowance Possibility Declare Race at Oak Garden in early January. Trainee Rodolphe Brissett will probably be using Jaime Torres for the primary time. Jockey Mark Casse’s second runner, Silent Tactic, made his first begin on filth from Woodbine, the place he competed on the all-weather monitor within the earlier Gun Runner S, and completed second to stablemate and fellow Southwest contender Strategic Threat. The Baytown Dreamers’ one win got here on the turf at Ellis Park. Nonetheless, he completed third with Smarty Jones, coached by Paul McEntee, who not too long ago returned to filth. Soldier N Diplomat began in November within the 1 1/6-mile Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes, ending third behind Kentucky Derby candidate Father Add. Jockey Jose Ortiz will probably be using a stallion for the primary time since piloting Soldier N Diplomat to his profession debut victory at Saratoga final July. Jockey McPeake’s second Southwest horse, Sleepingon Freedom, returned after ending fourth with Smarty Jones and rounded out the sphere.
Evaluation and predominant candidates:
Morning line odds are 9-2; strategic danger It ticks a couple of packing containers whereas providing stable worth. The Noble Hen colt confirmed exceptional skill in his profession debut at Gulfstream Park in June, profitable the primary state-bred particular weight race by 8 1/4 lengths. After a disappointing efficiency at Saratoga, the place Strategic Threat moved as much as grade stage, he returned to Gulfstream Park in October and completed third within the seven-furlong Affirmed Stakes. A month and a half later, competing towards the identical Florida horse within the InReality Stakes at Gulfstream, he put all of it collectively to win the 1 1/16 mile stakes by 9 lengths and earn his first equal base velocity determine of 85, ridden by Javier Castellano. Strategic Threat continued his upward trajectory in his debut within the 3-year-old Smarty Jones Stakes, delivery to Oaklawn Park and stepping up from state-bred to open stakes sire. He gained the 1 1/16 mile race by a commanding margin of 4 and a half lengths. This effort earned a career-high 90 equal base worth and was notably spectacular from a efficiency standpoint, as Strategic Threat elevated his stride from 25.19 toes to 25.59 toes within the last eight miles, masking the ultimate furlong in 11.91 seconds. Smarty Jones marked the stallion’s fourth straight velocity enchancment and likewise gained three straight by greater than 4 lengths. As talked about above, Corridor of Fame coach Mark Casse did properly on this match, profitable with a profitable share of 48% and an in-the-money share of 83%. Kass’ general historical past at Oaklawn is equally convincing, particularly in stakes races, the place he has gained 5 of 13 races over the previous 5 years, completed within the prime three 85% of the time, and posted a 43% return on funding. One other notable plus is the return of Javier Castellano, who gained back-to-back stakes on Strategic Threat by a complete of 13 1/2 lengths. The compatibility between the pair can’t be ignored. Total, Strategic Threat is a steadily enhancing stallion who has already confirmed he can deal with open stakes firm on the Oaklawn filth monitor. If he continues on his present trajectory, he might make an enormous assertion on Friday, and if he comes off at odds round 9-2, he might pay a heavy worth.
troopers and diplomats He has a stallion profile with odds higher than 12-1 within the morning. Bought for $950,000 as a 2-year-old in coaching on the Ocala Breeders Sale public sale final March, the Military Mule colt made his profession debut 4 months later at Saratoga, profitable the filth dash maiden particular weight race ridden by Jose Ortiz and incomes an 84 equal base velocity determine. A couple of month later, Soldier N Diplomat ran enthusiastically within the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and ended up ending fourth within the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by eventual TAA winner Ted Nophy, with Buetan, additionally competing from the Southwest, coming in second. He then headed to Churchill Downs in late October, the place he gained the one-turn mile allowance possibility declare race by 9 lengths, incomes a career-high 94 equibases. His subsequent begin, the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes, the place he completed third, was maybe essentially the most encouraging efficiency of his profession. Making his first begin on the second nook, Soldier N Diplomat took the lead and fought valiantly all the way in which to the ultimate 16, finally ending second behind Father Add and standing out as the one horse to significantly problem the runaway winner. This race offered priceless expertise and a robust basis within the Southwest. One other notable optimistic was his reunion with Jose Ortiz on Friday. Ortiz and coach Steve Asmussen have teamed as much as win stakes races at a 28% clip over the previous three years, with 22 wins in 78 begins and a top-three end 59% of the time. Soldier N Diplomat has a troublesome publish as a result of means he runs, however he has a respectable likelihood to run in an enormous race in his first begin for the reason that Kentucky Jockey Membership, and as a stallion of his caliber, he presents nice worth.
With a litmus paper scratch, D code Prone to play a post-time favourite position. The Speightstown colt has solely made one profession begin, however he has proven immense potential and must be thought of in all bets. In his debut at this monitor in mid-December, Deecord was an extended shot, however shortly took the lead within the six-furlong filth dash and posted a stable end. He drew clearly and proved to be the clear greatest, profitable authoritatively by 8 1/4 lengths. D’code’s efficiency earned him the 107 Equibase Velocity Determine. This is likely one of the highest speeds recorded by a 2-year-old horse in 2025. From a efficiency metrics standpoint, D’code was simply as spectacular within the closing levels, sustaining a median stride size of 23.24 toes from the ultimate half-furlong to the end line. This means he has the power to stretch two turns at 1 1/16 miles southwest. Along with proudly owning the perfect last-out equibase numbers within the discipline, he additionally ranks first in late tempo with a score of 113.5. Over the previous 12 months, stakes runners with each the best Gradual Tempo score and the best final-start Equibase velocity determine have gained inside 32% of their 577 begins, with a Prime 3 end price of 64%. Deecord continues to carry out properly within the morning and has proven some sharp coaching since his debut, together with a five-furlong 59.80 second on Jan. 7 at Oaklawn’s Grime Monitor. There is no such thing as a doubt that this stallion has nice expertise, however the mixture of a speedy rise at school and two turns of inexperience make Southwest a troublesome problem.
The remainder of the sphere has posted the best Equibase velocity numbers in related races. Landfill (85), Buetan (96), santa fe ranch (81), circle faucet (83), liberty nationwide (86), spirit of royal (85), Bricklin (84), techniques of silence (86), baytown dreamer (82), and sleep for freedom (86).
Get candidates by precedence:
strategic danger
troopers and diplomats
D code
