An evaluation of the current historical past of the $500,000 Grade 2 Fasig Risen Star Stakes on the Fairgrounds reveals some recurring traits that recommend Saturday’s renewed 1 1/8-mile Street to the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve qualifier will finish in an upset.
Listed below are six historic elements to bear in mind when handicapping the 2026 Risen Star.
I like quick horses
It’s doable for slower horses to win the Risen Star, with Angel of Empire (2023) and Sierra Leone (2024) being current examples. General, horses with sooner velocity carry out finest. 9 of the final 16 successful horses (56%) raced in first, second and third place after the opening half-mile, with the remaining three racing within the first half of the sector. Seven of the final 9 winners have been within the high three after the primary half-mile.
12 months | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and three/4 mile instances (street situations) |
2025 | magnitude | 1cent 1.5 size distinction (12 starters) | :46.92, 1:10.95 (excessive velocity) |
2024 | Sierra Leone | 9th 6.25 size distinction (12 starters) | :49.67, 1:14.74 (miscellaneous) |
2023 | angel of empire | 9th 5.75 size distinction (14 starters) | :47.50, 1:12.21 (quick) |
2022 | epicenter | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.97, 1:12.25 (quick) |
2021 | mandalon | 3rd 2 horse size distinction (11 starters) | :48.45, 1:12.74 (excessive velocity) |
2020 (Division #2) | modernist | 2n.d. 0.5 horse size distinction (11 starters) | :48.57, 1:12.62 (excessive velocity) |
2020 (Division #1) | Mr. Monomoi | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (11 starters) | :48.57, 1:12.85 (quick) |
2019 | battle of wills | 2n.d. 2.5 size distinction (14 starters) | :47.36, 1:12.20 (quick) |
2018 | Bravazo | 2n.d. One head distinction (9 starters) | :47.96, 1:12.85 (excessive velocity) |
2017 | garvin | 5th 9.5 size distinction (11 starters) | :47.02, 1:11.98 (excessive velocity) |
2016 | gun runner | 4th 4.5 size distinction (11 starters) | :46.38, 1:11.33 (quick) |
2015 | worldwide star | 6th 6.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :47.08, 1:12.16 (quick) |
2014 | intense vacation | 7th 6 horse size distinction (14 starters) | :48.14, 1:13.00 (quick) |
2013 | I received nervous | 11th 7 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :48.34, 1:12.74 (excessive velocity) |
2012 | godfather | 3rd 3 horse size distinction (11 starters) | :48.72, 1:13.15 (quick) |
2011 | mucho macho man | 2n.d. 1.5 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :49.24, 1:13.65 (quick) |
Favorites are weak and lengthy pictures usually take you unexpectedly.
Since 2011, favorites have gained 4 of 16 races (25%) at Risen Star, a decrease success price than normal for favorites.
The championship candidate is at a drawback as a consequence of an extended shot win. The previous 16 editions of Risen Star have seen 5 main upsets: I’ve Struck a Nerve (135.20-1), Bravazo (21-1), Modernist (12.80-1), Angel of Empire (13.70-1), and Magnitude (43.20-1).
As well as, Chunk of Gold (43.30-1), Solar Thunder (16.60-1), Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1), Forebamo (40.60-1) and Albano (13.60-1) have all positioned second at Risen Star since 2011.
look For horses operating within the Leconte Stakes
The G3 Lecomte S, held on the Fairgrounds in January, is Risen Star’s native preparation race. Seven (44%) of the previous 16 Risen Star winners have left Lecomte: Magnitude (2025), Epicenter (2022), Mandalon (2021), Mr. Monomoy (2020), Struggle of Will (2019), Worldwide Star (2015), and I’ve Struck a Nerve (2013).
Assist horses which have competed in stakes races up to now
Horses with stakes race expertise have carried out finest at Risen Star, successful 15 of the final 16 races. The one horse with out stakes expertise to win the Risen Star since 2011 was Modernist, who gained the later of the 2 Risen Star divisions in 2020.
current Preparation races are helpful
Fourteen of the previous 16 Risen Star winners (88%) entered Risen Star after collaborating in a current prep race in January or February. The 2 exceptions have been Gun Runner (2016) and Sierra Leone (2024), who raced for the primary time at age 3. Gunrunner and Sierra Leone have been nice skills who later grew to become champions.
Asmussen, Cox are notable trainers
Trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have had nice success with Risen Star.
Asmussen, a Corridor of Famer, has gained this race 4 instances: Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022) and Magnitude (2025).
In the meantime, Cox has three Risen Star wins up to now six years: Mr. Monomoy (2020), Mandalon (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023).
conclusion
In line with historical past, the most definitely winners of Risen Star in 2026 are: #5 Honcho ChipSomebody who suits the traits we have outlined very intently.
Chip Honcho had loads of early velocity and demonstrated it when he picked up the tempo en path to victory within the Gun Runner Stakes on the Fairgrounds. He equipped for January’s Risen Star, operating fourth within the Lecomte Stakes (shedding by simply 1 3/4 lengths). He’s skilled by Steve Asmussen and Lecomte’s loss will guarantee he begins at enticing odds – he may even grow to be a double-digit longshot.
In distinction, the anticipated favourite #4 Paladin He has not raced since December and is trying to emulate Gun Runner and Sierra Leone by successful Risen Star in his 3-year-old debut. Maybe the benefit of current racing expertise will give Chip Honcho the sting he wants to drag off an upset.
Benefit from the race!
