The Genesis Invitational is again at Riviera Nation Membership after being diverted to Torrey Pines final 12 months as a consequence of wildfires. This modified the whole lot. Coach Tory requested his gamers to outlive round 12 underneath par, however Riviera often requires nearer to 17 underneath par to win. Though it has the identical “laborious course” label, the stress to attain is totally totally different. Once more, you want elite irons and contact across the greens, however you additionally want conversions.
I am focusing on gamers who could make birdies on their strategy photographs, make saves after they miss the inexperienced, and actually capitalize on momentum. Riviera is iron-first and pore-sensitive, separating the sphere constantly from tee to inexperienced.
From a value perspective, I do not like this board. A lot of the high 20 folks pay taxes, however I do not pay taxes simply to behave. Until I actually have a ceiling case, I nearly by no means make it into the highest 10. So it is a mild card, however it’s not a reasonably card. Which means the trail is all the time non-compulsory. If you wish to play, that is what I’ve.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook Topic to alter.
finest wager
Hideki Matsuyama: High 10 (+170)
full odds
High 20 (-142)
High 5 (+365)
To win (22-1)
I often stay within the high 20 as a result of I worth consistency, however Deki is without doubt one of the few gamers I really feel snug shifting into the highest 10 this week. As a result of he is hitting spikes.
Matsuyama’s complete recreation is constructed for laborious golf programs. He is top-notch with the irons, top-10 within the discipline from tee to inexperienced, first across the greens, and among the best scramblers on tour. What which means is Hideki saving himself when he misses the inexperienced, maintaining his spherical alive and stopping huge numbers.
He has received right here earlier than, however has missed the reduce twice and might be unstable. Nonetheless, if Matsuyama is sharp along with his irons and might discover some contact in his brief recreation, he may transfer up the leaderboard. That is why I do not care concerning the high 10. As a result of I see him as a top-five, ceiling play.
Maverick McNeely: High 20 (+115)
Full odds:
High 10 (+280)
High 5 (+620)
To win (41-1)
Mr. McNeely is best than the market thinks. The highest 20 constructive cash costs point out skepticism. Possibly it is the striped placing or the dearth of bombs off the tee, however Riviera calls for management, in order that’s advantageous.
Riviera is an approach-first course, with the eliminated greens baked into the design. It’s important to create seems to be together with your irons and survive across the greens. McNeely is quietly well-suited there. He is within the high 25 from tee to inexperienced, with loads of distance off the tee and, extra importantly, accuracy from the green. His placing is beneficial on programs that neutralize elite putters (high 10 within the discipline), but additionally rewards gamers who can keep regular with the pour and convert momentum. McNealy does.
He improved his whole by 9 strokes to T7 at Riviera in 2022 and completed tenth at Torrey Pines earlier this month, however he has proven a choice for lengthy, demanding setups that emphasize tee-to-green play. A top-20 participant requires stable ball-striking and common saves, which fits his present type and Riviera’s profile. This can be a respectful wager.
Scotty Scheffler: To Win (+320)
Full odds:
High 10 (-300)
High 5 (-144)
At this value, you may in all probability wrinkle your nostril. Positive, it feels brief, it seems to be costly, and you’re feeling such as you’re paying retail value, however you take a look at the sphere and suppose, “Oh, Scotty is profitable this week.”
He is the gold customary as his recreation flies in all places, however what’s attention-grabbing this week is that his irons, that are nonetheless high 5 within the discipline, are the “weakest” a part of his recreation…and that claims all of it. When your baseline is that prime, it does not must be excellent.
He additionally ranks first in tee-to-green and tee-off, and third in scrambling. Place your self, hit the fitting spots, and survive while you inevitably miss the inexperienced. Scotty does it higher than anybody. Even when his iron play is not by the roof, he is nonetheless elite sufficient to get observed. And even while you miss, you save par at an unbelievable price.
His opening spherical this 12 months was lackluster, dropping his stroke from tee to inexperienced on Thursday. The truth is, the break up was so robust that he was at a minus mark on Thursday after which gaining both plus or minus three strokes per spherical from Friday by Sunday. I would not name it volatility, however extra of a correction. He figures out the course after which smothers the sphere.
The value could seem excessive, however it’ll make you the very best golfer on the planet on the course and offer you that edge. Await a greater value? No have to chase hypothetical declines and quit on pre-tournament costs. We all know this sample in books as properly. If he was a number of strokes behind, you Might See +400. That is not an enormous low cost in comparison with his precise profitable odds.
High 5 at -144 is ok, however it’s skinny for gamers the place the worth of profitable is actual right here. If his profile matches the winner’s template and he is the very best tee-to-green participant, +320 isn’t any huge deal. It is justified.
Gamers to contemplate for each day fantasy
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Ryo Hisatsune $6,800: This can be a pure benefit. He’s presently within the high 10 from tee to inexperienced with a high 25 strategy and powerful pour placing. Hitting the ball right here creates separation and the putt ought to be impartial. He has three consecutive top-10 finishes: 2nd at Torrey, tenth at Phoenix and eighth at Pebble. These three harsh setups present the iron ceiling. The dangers are clear. A primary Riviera begin and a median scramble, however at this value you are shopping for an strategy climb and up to date type. If the irons fly, the highest 25 can be decided.
Patrick Cantlay $9,300: This can be a conditional sure. You are paying for Riviera Match, not present momentum. He has had double-digit tee photographs and a number of top-five finishes right here up to now, and his total profile is according to the course’s suitability, together with robust strategy play, constant motion off the tee, and impartial pour placing. The priority is volatility. His scrambles aren’t elite, so if the iron goes down, it might be bother. At this value, Cantlay is a stable piece, not a ceiling play like Schaeffler. Money and single entry potential, or GPP, so long as possession is modest.
DFS participant fades out
Jake Knapp $8,600: Sure, he had 5 consecutive top-11 finishes and a T17th place at this occasion final 12 months, however that was at Torrey Pines, not Riviera. Knapp’s present run is fueled by elite driving distance and a red-hot putter. Nice combo, however not essentially appropriate for this course. Take into consideration the precision of your strategy and your contact across the greens. He ranks decrease than the sphere in each approaches, and his scrambles are common at finest. This value is paying for a contemporary heater and overlooks the Riviera Match.
