On this function, we take a capsule take a look at three horses who’re scorching within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose possibilities of competing within the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve should not as robust as they as soon as have been. The third version of this weblog on the 2026 Rose Run will deal with what has modified because the earlier version on February tenth.
Heating
1. Paladin
There wasn’t a lot inside dialogue about this week’s version, with three issues getting hotter and three issues getting colder. The winner of the Saudi Derby won’t be nominated for the Triple Crown as a result of there are two preparatory races for the Kentucky Derby in america, one among which was considerably stronger than the opposite. That made Paladin, winner of the Fasigtipton Risen Star Stakes, a straightforward decide for the highest spot. Final 12 months’s Remsen Stakes winner returned from a two-month break with a workmanlike half-length win on the Fairgrounds on February 14, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Paladin, the maroon colt who was the 2017 Horse of the 12 months Gun Runner, moved at a average tempo by means of the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star and needed to run a lot of the lengthy fairground straight to reel in runner-up Chip Honcho. He ran properly within the second half, finishing the final eight miles in 12.52 seconds and the ultimate quarter in 24.82 seconds, posting a prime velocity of 93, Beyer’s profession finest, for the win. The six-point enchancment was an incredible soar for a 3-year-old horse’s debut. Nevertheless, Equibase rated the race much less favorably with a velocity determine of 93 in comparison with the Equibase velocity determine of 96 that Paladin earned at Remsen. Paladin has climbed to No. 1 on the Highway to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 60 qualifying factors, successfully securing the spot for coach Chad Brown. The horse is an unmatched Tapit mare, and his grandmother (maternal grandmother) India received the 2006 Cotillion Stakes, so a mile and 1 / 4 needs to be inside his vary. His subsequent begin might be within the Toyota Bluegrass S at Keeneland on April 4th.
2. Chip Honmachi
I am not as assured in Chip Honcho’s probabilities at 1 1/4 miles as I’m in Fasig-Tipton-Risenstar Stakes winner Paladin, however I’ve to provide credit score to the second-place horse who ran a nasty race regardless of shedding. He set the tempo on the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star, preventing the size of the straight earlier than reluctantly giving means within the last stride. The darkish bay or brown Join colt closed out his 2-year-old season with a victory within the Gun Runner Stakes, his stakes debut for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen, however took a step again when he completed fourth within the 1.16-mile Lecomte Stakes on January seventeenth. It was cheap to assume that the additional distance at Risen Star in all probability would not have helped Chip Honcho, however the horse confirmed unbelievable willpower and elevated horsepower within the lead. His profession finest Beyer Velocity Determine 10 is 92 factors. Equibase’s six-point rise to 93 is just a bit lower than flattering. Contemplating Chip Honcho did the heavy lifting on the entrance early in Risen Star, his time for the ultimate eight miles was a stable 12.86 seconds. He’s additionally at the moment in second place with 39 factors and has certified for the Kentucky Derby. My predominant concern is that because the race will get longer and the expertise round him improves, I believe it is unlikely he’ll take over an unwavering lead, however he confirmed some guts within the straight line on the Fairgrounds on Saturday.
3. Pavlovian
Many Kentucky Derby followers initially thought pacesetter Categorical Child, like Sunland Park racetrack announcer Eric Alwan, had stopped Pavlovian from racing late within the Feb. 15 Sunland Park Derby, however an exciting picture end put Pavlovian within the lead by a slim margin. As a result of quick tempo of the 1 1/16-mile race, neither of the highest two runners completed significantly quick, and their velocity numbers mirrored that, with Pavlovian incomes an Equibase Velocity Determine of 87 and Beyer Velocity Determine of 87. There are additionally questions concerning the high quality of competitors within the six-horse Sunland Derby. Pavlovian completed third within the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby towards a California colt, incomes his first stakes victory and 20 factors to qualify for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Pavlovian has some issues to enhance on to grow to be a critical participant on the derby course, however the Sunland Derby was a optimistic step.
Additionally relevant: Saudi derby winner Al Haram If he had been nominated for the Triple Crown, I in all probability would have given him the highest spot with a slight benefit over Pavlov. The horse, a sprinter who has received a number of stakes in america, is glad to overtake runner-up Obliteration and can compete within the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby at Meydan on March 28 with coach Abdullah Al-Sidlani. Al Haram has 4 wins from 4 races, however has by no means raced longer than a mile, so this race is a giant hurdle that might result in his Derby hopes if he passes the check. …Remington Springboard Mile Winner specific child He misplaced the Sunland Park Derby when he was caught at 1 1/16 miles, dropping his Equibase velocity determine from 96 to 87. … We have been a little bit gradual within the sport. superior gun A minimum of for the Kentucky Derby, he received by three and a half lengths in his first particular weight race on the undercard of the Risen Star Stakes on the Fairgrounds on February 14th. However Whisper Hill Farm’s home-bred colt, Gun Runner, seems to have had a light-weight bulb activate, regardless of having had poor finishes in his previous three begins. He is a Curlin mare and his grandfather (maternal grandmother) is 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Fairly, so it is price maintaining a tally of what he does subsequent.
settle down
1. My world
Coach Brad Cox shipped My World to Saudi Arabia for $1.5 million after using him within the Saudi Derby on a three-game successful streak. The Important High quality stallion received the Nashua Stakes by three and a half lengths as a 2-year-old and opened 2026 with a win within the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on January 3 by two lengths. Transport to the Center East is a giant ask for a calmly raced 3-year-old horse. Whether or not it was touring, racetracks, or competitions, My World made it to the center of the pack, however light out late and completed eleventh.th Out of 14 runners, he was 21 3/4 lengths behind winner Al Haram. I nonetheless assume this man is a gifted man, however that is positively a setback when it comes to his potential to be an element within the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
2. Mesquite
Mesquite seemed like a Kentucky Derby prospect after successful his second profession begin, a 1 1/16-mile race on Nov. 7, 2025, at Churchill Downs. In his debut race in 2026, he completed second to Golden Tempo within the G3 Lecomte Stakes, however nothing slowed his momentum. Sadly, the Union Rags colt was later sidelined with a tender tissue damage and can miss the Kentucky Derby, in keeping with the Day by day Racing Type. Mesquite is a 3-year-old horse to regulate later this 12 months. I hope he recovers rapidly.
3. Courtship
Coating, a maroon colt out of G1 winner Cavorting and two-time Horse of the 12 months Carlin, made his second profession begin within the one-mile race held at Aqueduct on November 9, 2025. Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher advisable he strive the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes subsequent, however Coating had a nasty begin and completed fourth. He additionally didn’t get off to a very good begin within the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes on February 14, ending sixth, 11 lengths behind. Coating adopted at an affordable tempo from inside three and a half lengths, however he did not present a lot within the second half at Risen Star and seemed like a 3-year-old not but prepared for this stage of competitors. Maybe he simply matures a little bit extra slowly than others.
Notice: roaring He made fairly the primary impression on January 10 when he ran wild by 5 and a half lengths towards Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott at Gulfstream Park. Sadly, coach Mott informed Day by day Racing Type that the promising stallion Gun Runner might be sidelined for a while with an damage. “He might be out for some time, however we do not understand how lengthy he might be out at this level,” Mott informed DRF. “Anyway, the Triple Crown might be a rush.”
