Current historical past might assist handicappers in Saturday’s $250,000 Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. After reviewing the previous 14 1 1/16-mile street qualifiers to the Kentucky Derby to seek out frequent traits amongst previous winners, the evaluation revealed seven angles that can be utilized to gauge a selected participant’s possibilities of profitable the 2026 Fountain of Youth.
Watch out for late runners
Since Fountain of Youth adopted its present distance construction in 2012, 9 of the 14 profitable horses (64%) have began within the high three after the opening half-mile. Generally quicker horses win at Fountain of Youth, however slower horses typically do higher.
12 months | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and three/4 mile instances (Course standing) |
2025 | sovereignty | 6th 5.5 size distinction (6 starters) | :47.07, 1:10.68 (quick) |
2024 | Dornoch | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (5 starters) | :48.14, 1:11.43 (quick) |
2023 | forte | 5th 2.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :47.65, 1:11.84 (quick) |
2022 | simplification | 7th 2.25 size distinction (11 starters) | :48.27, 1:12.19 (quick) |
2021 | highest honor | 8th 6 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.18, 1:11.51 (quick) |
2020 | For meals | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :46.72, 1:11.30 (quick) |
2019 | code of honor | 5th 8.5 size distinction (11 starters) | :45.69, 1:10.42 (excessive velocity) |
2018 | a promise fulfilled | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :48.39, 1:12.60 (quick) |
2017 | Gunnevera | 7th 9 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.18, 1:12.37 (quick) |
2016 | Mohaimen | 3rd 1.5 size distinction (6 starters) | :47.07, 1:11.02 (quick) |
2015 | Iza Knockout | 4th 2 horse size distinction (8 starters) | :47.87, 1:11.65 (quick) |
2014 | wildcat pink | 2n.d. One head (12 starters) | :46.25, 1:10.13 (quick) |
2013 | orb | 6th 8 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :45.45, 1:08.85 (quick) |
2012 | union rug | 4th 2 horse size distinction (7 starters) | :48.11, 1:12.05 (excessive velocity) |
Wager on horses under 5-1
Common horses and low-priced horses have carried out properly on the Fountain of Youth. The highest horse has gained in 5 of the final 14 races (36%), and horses that began 5.40-1 or decrease have gained 12 of the previous 14 races (86%).
Give preferential therapy to horses that haven’t raced this 12 months
Since 2012, horses making their season debut at Fountain of Youth have gained 5 of 24 races (21%). Their profitable share is greater than double that of horses that race in January or February for the Fountain of Youth and have a file of 99 wins and 99 losses (9%) since 2012.
Sprinters wrestle to beat confirmed route racers
On the Fountain of Youth, horses which have competed in route races (races longer than one mile) outnumber sprinters. Each winner since 2012 has competed in at the very least one route race, and 11 of the previous 14 Fountain of Youth winners have gained a route race.
John Velasquez is high jockey
Since 2007, John Velasquez has gained the Fountain of Youth 5 instances, greater than every other jockey this century. He has a number of top-three finishes throughout the identical interval.
Seek for horses produced by younger horses that gained stakes
9 (60%) of the final 15 Fountain of Youth winners (together with the final six in a row) have been sires who gained on the stakes degree as younger horses. This contains eight stallions who gained graded stakes as two-year-olds.
Prefers horses with expertise in main races
It’s uncommon for a horse with no expertise in main races to win the Fountain of Youth. Twelve of the 14 current winners (86%) had beforehand competed in graded stakes. One exception was Itza Knockout, who overcame the disqualification of graded stakes winner Upstart to win.
conclusion
historical past suggests #3 Tokin He’s a critical menace to profitable the 2026 Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Talkin hasn’t raced since his 2-year-old season, when he completed a below-average ninth within the 1 1/8-mile G2 Remsen Stakes. The horse beforehand ran properly off the tempo within the Graded Stakes, and completed second within the 1-mile G1 Champagne Stakes.
Talkin has a wonderful pedigree from an early age, as a son of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old colt Good Magic.
Talkin matches 5 of the seven historic angles. With out John Velasquez within the saddle, he’ll seemingly begin at higher odds than 5-1, however that is a small drawback. If you wish to take a protracted shot on the Fountain of Youth, Talkin is certified to take it from a historic perspective.
Benefit from the race!
