Sunday’s $1 million race, Grade 2 degree stakes The race at Oaklawn Park guarantees to be an ideal race. Among the many 10 runners, there are a number of horses with monitor data in graded stakes, however one among them, #1 Bravalo, is anticipated to run in Saturday’s G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes as an alternative.
Which horse has the perfect probability of successful on the 2026 degree? We analyzed the current historical past of the Woodford Reserve Qualifier’s 1 1/16-mile highway to the Kentucky Derby and recognized six historic developments that can be utilized to type the candidates.
I like quick horses
Horses with quick velocity carry out greatest at degree. 5 of the final 15 horses (33%) have been within the lead after half a mile, and 13 of the final 15 horses (87%) have been racing within the first half of the sector. One other horse, Will Take Cost, got here simply after half a mile from the midfield.
To have a look at it one other method, 12 of Insurgent’s final 15 winners (80%) have been racing inside 1 3/4 lengths of the chief after half a mile.
yr | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and three/4 mile instances (course situations) |
2025 | battle of coal | 5th 8 horse size distinction (13 starters) | 45.72, 1:10.94 (quick) |
2024 | timberlake | 5th 1.5 size distinction (12 starters) | 47.67, 1:12.93 (quick) |
2023 | belief recreation | 5th 4.25 size distinction (11 starters) | 46.17, 1:11.45 (sloppy) |
2022 | one eye | 3rd 1 horse size distinction (11 starters) | 48.86, 1:14.30 (quick) |
2021 | live performance tour | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (8 starters) | 47.53, 1:12.00 (quick) |
2020 | nadal | 1cent One head distinction (8 starters) | 46.00, 1:11.38 (sloppy) |
2019 (Division #2) | Omaha Seaside | 1cent One head (10 starters) | 47.29, 1:11.82 (quick) |
2019 (Division #1) | lengthy distance toddy | 5th 1.75 size distinction (7 starters) | 47.58, 1:11.92 (quick) |
2018 | magnum moon | 3rd 0.5 horse size distinction (10 starters) | 47.15, 1:11.26 (quick) |
2017 | Magasi | 2n.d. 1 horse size distinction (11 starters) | 47.04, 1:11.35 (quick) |
2016 | cupid | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (14 starters) | 46.82, 1:12.11 (quick) |
2015 | american pharaoh | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (7 starters) | 49.63, 1:15.22 (sloppy) |
2014 | hopper tunity | 3rd 0.5 horse size distinction (8 starters) | 47.97, 1:12.24 (moist first) |
2013 | take duty | 6th 4.75 size distinction (11 starters) | 47.19, 1:12.39 (quick) |
2012 | secret circle | 4th 1.5 size distinction (12 starters) | 47.09, 1:11.42 (quick) |
Do not ignore the highest candidates for #1 and #2
Longshot usually exceeds expectations in Rebels. Over the previous 15 editions, we have seen double-digit upsets within the spring with Name Battle (11.90 to 1), Confidence Recreation (18.50 to 1), An Ojo (75.40 to 1), Will Take Cost (28 to 1), whereas Widespread Protection (27.20 to 1), Ethereal Highway (15.80 to 1), Hoosier (18.80 to 1), Excession (82.60-1), Sonnetia (112.30-1) and Optimizer (27.90-1) are in second place with excessive costs.
Bob Baffert is a robust coach
Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert excels on the degree. Since 2010, he has recorded 8 wins, 5 seconds, and 1/3 from 17 beginning pitchers, which interprets to a 50% successful share and an 81% in-the-money share.
Current prep races are helpful
It takes horse to beat Insurgent within the first race of the season. Since 2012, solely two horses have achieved this feat: Timberlake (2024) and American Pharoah (2015). Each are G1 winners with confirmed expertise.
In any other case, horses raced in January or February have received 13 of Insurgent’s final 15 races.
Watch out for horses getting ready at Oak Garden
You may anticipate horses with racing expertise at Oak Garden to carry out greatest on the degree. Nevertheless, this isn’t all the time the case. Of the previous 15 winners, solely 4 (26%) have dropped out of the race at Oaklawn. The remaining 11 ready at Santa Anita Park (six instances), the Honest Grounds (two instances), Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, or Aqueduct (one time every).
Route racers with a confirmed monitor file are advantageous.
Whereas it isn’t not possible for horses to advance past dash distances and win for the primary time, 12 of the 15 current winners (80%) had beforehand competed in at the least one race over a mile.
conclusion
Though not the entire 2026 Insurgent Stakes runners will match the entire developments outlined above. #2 Litmus take a look at paper It comes fairly shut.
Litmus Take a look at is a Bob Baffert trainee and has some early velocity to spare. Final yr, the identical horse set the tempo when he completed third within the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, adopted by a second-place end and received the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Revell will likely be making his first begin at Oaklawn Park.
There are two small knocks in opposition to the litmus take a look at. First, he is not an extended shot, however that is okay. Low-priced horses earn an honest revenue from degree wins. Second, though the horse has not raced since December thirteenth, his sturdy efficiency in final yr’s graded stakes exhibits that he has the expertise to beat the two-and-a-half month break.
Good luck and benefit from the race!
