On this characteristic, we take a capsule take a look at three horses who’re sizzling within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose possibilities of competing within the 2026 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve aren’t as sturdy as they as soon as have been. Within the fourth version of this weblog for the 2026 Rose Run, we are going to concentrate on what has modified because the final version on February 18th.
Heating
1. Commandments
After the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January third, I’ll admit that I didn’t consider within the commandments. I assumed he beat a questionable pack in that seven-horse discipline, however his remaining quarter-mile time within the one-mile race was 25.47 seconds, and I needed to see extra, particularly contemplating the sluggish tempo. The colt Into Mischief entered the $400,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on February twenty eighth, stretching out into the second nook in opposition to good opposition, keeping off a decided pursuit from second-place Chief Wallaby and ending the ultimate furlong in 12.77 seconds. After the race there was a whole lot of dialogue about how nicely Comanmento sprinted, which was good to see, however what mattered most to me was that he completed sturdy and stood as much as the problem from a top quality opponent. The horse gained three straight races underneath coach Brad Cox and earned a career-high 101 Beyer velocity determine. That is a 10-point enchancment and the form of progress you’d anticipate from a March 3-year-old. That is additionally the very best Beyer quantity posted by a 3-year-old this yr. Into Mischief, a 2-year-old Grade 1 winner and out of the Shipican Harbor-bred sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, Commandment, who’s attracting consideration as a serious Derby contender within the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream on March 29, has the potential to make his subsequent begin.
2. Class president
This week’s Kentucky Derby Prediction Profile highlighted Class President’s upset victory within the $1 million Insurgent Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 1 on his first strive over about two corners. He ran two seconds behind Solitude Dude within the seven-furlong Swale Stakes. I assumed he was within the high spot right here, however ended up settling for a detailed second. Learn extra about class presidents right here. Nevertheless, to simplify my evaluation of an excellent Insurgent victory, he outplayed a robust opponent in Silent Techniques, handed the take a look at within the first two turns, fought resolutely within the remaining 1/sixteenth mile, and completed quick within the remaining 1/eighth mile in 12.35 seconds. With a trainer-jockey duo of Corridor of Famers John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher, and a pedigree that offers us optimism that he’ll do nicely the longer he races on the Derby course, there’s rather a lot to love about Class President. He’ll want to enhance in his subsequent begin, as he earned new career-high Equibase Velocity numbers of 99 and Beyer Velocity numbers of 91…and that was the important thing dividing line between Commandment and Class President this week.
3. Chief Wallaby
My optimistic impression of Comento from the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on February twenty eighth logically interprets to an equally optimistic outlook for Chief Wallaby, who got here a detailed second to complete a neck behind Comento in his second profession begin. The Bay Structure colt, educated by Corridor of Famer Invoice Mott, entered the Fountain of Youth with a debut victory by a size and a half within the dash at Gulfstream Park on January tenth. In his first stakes try, he completed the ultimate eight miles in 12.90 seconds and the ultimate quarter mile in 25.37 seconds, stretching two corners towards Fountain of Youth. With two very promising races up to now, Chief Wallaby appears to be like like a severe racehorse with a vibrant future. He gained a career-best 99 Equibase Velocity Determine and 100 Beyer Velocity Determine, the latter notably spectacular for a horse operating for less than his second time. Mott tends to be conservative as a coach, so it will likely be attention-grabbing to see the place he finds Chief Wallaby as his subsequent runner and whether or not he’ll push him in direction of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.
Additionally relevant: I significantly thought of reagan’s honor He’s aiming for a top-three spot forward of Gotham Stakes winner Iron Honor and John Battaglia Memorial Stakes winner Nice White. Reagan’s Honor, a darkish bay/tan colt out of the Honor AP foal of coach Shelly Deveaux, gained the 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the Fairgrounds on February 19 by 6 3/4 lengths in his third begin. After an unplaced debut within the dash, he dominated two begins and two turns to earn an Equibase Velocity Determine of 105 and a Beyer Velocity Determine of 96. I’m wanting ahead to seeing how he handles the elevated competitiveness. … iron honor Within the Gotham Stakes held at Aqueduct on February twenty eighth, he gained a hard-fought one-length victory, enhancing his document to 2-2. He battled Clown the Buckeye by means of the primary half-mile in 46.30 seconds, ultimately keeping off his challenger and profitable the one-mile race. The highest two horses have been far superior to the remaining, as third place Proper to Occasion was six and a half lengths behind. It was a pleasant win for Iron Honor, however I doubt he needs to go a lot additional since his remaining quarter-mile time was 26.39 seconds. … nice white shark Within the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes held at Turfway Park on February twenty first, he confirmed tenacity to carry off Full Effort by a neck. It was a fantastic comeback after ending fifth within the Leonatus Stakes final trip. Nevertheless, all three nice white shark races happened on all-weather roads, they usually weren’t notably quick.
calm down
1. Plutarch
Kage, out of Into Mischief, has established himself as a high-quality 2-year-old horse by ending third within the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes sponsored by DK Horses, profitable as soon as on turf and ending 2nd within the stakes. He gained consideration on the Kentucky Derby by ending first in his season debut and profitable by three-quarters of a size within the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on February seventh. The win was a top quality stakes victory that confirmed Plutarch was the most effective 3-year-old horse for coach Bob Baffert, who has gained the Kentucky Derby six occasions, however on February 25, Churchill Downs’ public relations division introduced that Plutarch could be absent from the Kentucky Derby. It is disappointing information for his connections, however we hope Plutarch makes a full restoration and competes within the sturdy 3-year-old races in the summertime and fall.
2. Napoleon Solo & Blackout Time
Napoleon Solo will return to racing for the primary time in almost 4 months within the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on February twenty eighth, ridden by coach Chad Summers. Blackout Time marks coach Kenny McPeek’s return from a virtually related layoff within the March 1st Insurgent S. Each of them appeared like they completely wanted to race, and their circumstances have been removed from 100%. Napoleon Solo, final seen profitable the G1 Champagne Stakes by six-and-a-half lengths in October final yr, was third after half a mile however faltered late, ending 11-3/4 lengths behind winner Commandment. Blackout Time had not competed since Oct. 4, 2025, when he completed second to eventual champion Ted Nophy within the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He was additionally third at Insurgent after half a mile, however dropped to fourth, eight lengths behind the category president. Each deserve an opportunity of their second race after an extended break, however it’s laborious to disclaim that they have been disappointing of their first begins as three-year-olds.
3. Troopers and Diplomats
Soldier N Diplomat adopted up his promising second place within the G3 Southwest Stakes with a career-high 97 Equibase Velocity quantity and fifth place within the $1 million Insurgent Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on March 1st. He was 13 1/2 lengths behind the winner, Class President, and his Equibase Velocity Determine dropped by 19 factors. Though a racehorse’s progress shouldn’t be linear, such vital setbacks are troublesome to beat. Coach Steve Asmussen will want a a lot improved race in his subsequent begin if he’s to stay a Kentucky Derby contender.
Observe: I assumed Solitude man When he completed third within the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February twenty eighth, he improved from the dash and achieved good outcomes with an Equibase velocity of 96 and a Beyer velocity of 97, however coach Saffie Joseph Jr. appears to be aiming to shorten the space and intention for a giant 3-year-old race underneath a mile.
