Earlier than you guess on Saturday’s $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on the Fairgrounds, you may need to try the current historical past of the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 2 highway qualifier to the Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve.
Analyzing the previous 15 Louisiana Derbies reveals repeating developments that can be utilized to categorize the favorites and decide the probably winner. Listed below are six handicap angles to remember.
Tactical velocity is a bonus
The previous two Louisiana Derby races have been received by runners who began late, however general horses with tactical velocity have carried out greatest, with 11 of the final 15 winners ending first, second, third or fourth after the primary half mile.
12 months | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile & 3/4 mile time |
2025 | titztastic | 9th 9.5 size distinction (10 starters) | :46.84, 1:11.03 (quick) |
2024 | seize freedom | 11th 7.75 size distinction (11 starters) | :48.33, 1:12.54 (excessive velocity) |
2023 | kings barns | 1cent 1 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :49.60, 1:14.69 (quick) |
2022 | epicenter | 3rd 1.5 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :47.35, 1:11.69 (quick) |
2021 | scorching rod charlie | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (8 starters) | :47.04, 1:11.25 (quick) |
2020 | Wells Bayou | 1cent 1.5 size distinction (14 starters) | :48.00, 1:12.42 (quick) |
2019 | by my requirements | 4th 3.5 size distinction (11 starters) | :47.68, 1:11.54 (quick) |
2018 | Noble Indy | 2n.d. 1 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :46.61, 1:11.47 (quick) |
2017 | garvin | 4th 6.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :47.00, 1:11.15 (quick) |
2016 | gun runner | 3rd 2 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :48.24, 1:12.94 (quick) |
2015 | worldwide star | 7th 7 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :48.59, 1:13.27 (quick) |
2014 | pastor is in hassle | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.86, 1:12.14 (quick) |
2013 | revolutionary | 12th 12.25 size distinction (14 starters) | :46.34, 1:11.84 (quick) |
2012 | hero of order | 2n.d. 1.5 size distinction (13 starters) | :47.27, 1:11.55 (quick) |
2011 | pants on fireplace | 2n.d. 1 horse size distinction (12 starters) | :47.53, 1:12.02 (quick) |
Offers a bonus to horses that begin with 9 wins and a pair of losses or much less
Low-priced horses carry out nicely within the Louisiana Derby. Six of the previous 15 (40%) have been favored, and 11 of the final 15 (73.3%) began with a file of 9 wins and a pair of losses or much less.
BetholSeth has expertise in main prize stakes.
Horses which have beforehand completed within the high 4 in graded stakes have received 13 of the previous 15 Louisiana Derby races (86.7%). Six of the previous 15 winners (40%) have beforehand received graded stakes.
Rosario and Pratt are notable jockeys
Jockeys Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have received the previous 5 Louisiana Derby collectively.
Rosario scored in Sizzling Rod Charlie (2021), Epicenter (2022) and Tiz-tastic (2025), throughout which period he completed second in Diarm (2023) and fourth in Truck Phantom (2024).
Pratt didn’t experience within the Louisiana Derby in 2021 or 2022, however received two in a row with Kingsbarns (2023) and Catching Freedom (2024) earlier than ending fourth in 2025 with John Hancock.
Asmussen, Pletcher are principal trainers
Corridor of Fame trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher every have 5 Louisiana Derby wins.
Asmussen scored hits with Fifty Stars (2001), Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022) and Tiz-tastic (2025). Pletcher has received at Round Quay (2007), Mission Inmagible (2010), Revolution (2013), Noble Indy (2018) and Kingsbarns (2023).
respect Horses operating within the Risen Star Stakes
The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on the Fairgrounds has produced 9 of the previous 15 Louisiana Derby winners (60%), however solely 4 have received each races.
conclusion
Historical past is evident: Listed below are the probably winners of the 2026 Louisiana Derby. #3 Chip Honmachicoach Steve Asmussen, who completed runner-up within the Risen Star Stakes.
Chip Honcho has loads of early velocity, so his operating fashion lends itself to the Louisiana Derby. The horse has appeared in two graded stakes races, and it appears very doubtless that he’ll run at odds of 9 wins and a pair of losses or much less. Consequently, Chip Honcho aligns with 5 of the six historic angles outlined to this point, making him a convincing candidate to win.
Benefit from the race!
