On this function, we take a capsule take a look at three horses who’re sizzling within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose possibilities of competing within the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve aren’t as sturdy as they as soon as have been. Within the fifth version of this weblog for the 2026 Rose Run, we’ll deal with what has modified for the reason that final version on March third.
Heating
1. Incredivolt
With another week to go, the highest spot will as soon as once more be in jeopardy. I selected Incredivolt over Puma for 2 causes. First, profitable the Virginia Derby Offered by New Kent County at Colonial Downs on March 14th by 4 lengths was a pointy reversal from his sixth place in January’s Holy Bull Stakes (shedding by greater than 25 lengths). Second, I believe it is somewhat extra doubtless that he’ll experience within the Kentucky Derby. The horse has two wins from two races at Churchill Downs, a formidable victory for a 2-year-old within the Avenue Sense Stakes, and new career-high Equibase (95) and Beyer Velocity Determine (88) wins within the Virginia Derby. Alternatively, he is nonetheless not quick sufficient on paper to compete with the highest gamers within the division. And for those who simply throw in a holy bull and assume Incredibold received nearly nothing in that race, it is pure to be skeptical that he can put together for the Derby from what is actually a one-turn prep race. It is a actually harsh evaluation for me, as Incredibold is at the moment operating very effectively in two stakes, clocking the final quarter mile within the Virginia Derby in 23.97 seconds. I actually wish to imagine it…
2. Puma
After performing effectively in his first two begins, together with a 3rd place within the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Puma broke by along with his first profession victory within the $350,000 Esmark Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs on March 7. He received by three-quarters of a size, ending the ultimate eight miles in 13.10 seconds, regardless of very large journey all through. Like Incredivolt, Puma is not off course as he achieved profession greatest Equibase velocity figures of 95 and Beyer velocity figures of 89, however he nonetheless has room to make up for the very best within the 3-year-old colt division. Given his pedigree, Puma ought to proceed to excel over lengthy distances for coach Gustavo Delgado, who received the Kentucky Derby with Mage in 2023, and with solely three begins to date there may be room for him to enhance with expertise. Preliminary plans seem to name for another preliminary race, with choices together with the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28 and the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass S at Keeneland on April 4.
3. Highly effective
Whereas a number of of Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert’s most promising 3-year-olds didn’t run this 12 months, Potente seems to be not off course after powerfully chasing down Robusta within the closing run of the G2 San Felipe Stakes offered by DK Horses at Santa Anita Park. He went from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in his first main check and improved to 2-for-2 with the victory heading into stakes motion. A sire of main sire Into Mischief, the colt improved his Beyer Velocity Determine 10 factors to 89 and earned an Equibase Velocity Determine of 94. What he lacks in fundamentals, he makes up for in potential. His dam is the stakes winner Candy Sting out of Superior Once more, and his grandmother is the 2000 turf champion mare Good Sting. Though his lack of expertise is a priority, as his closing 400m time in San Felipe was 25.98 seconds, there are causes for optimism.
Additionally relevant: This part will deal with preparation for the Derby, as we’re coming into a interval within the horse racing calendar the place it’s troublesome for first-time winners and prize-money horses to make an impression on the Kentucky Derby. canalettoSandman, a half-brother of the 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman, misplaced by lower than a size within the Tampa Bay Derby however had a powerful displaying within the closing phases to complete third. After an eight-length debut victory on January twenty fifth, he had a stable stakes debut, however with a complete of 15 factors he might want to rack up extra factors and be fast. … Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Much more commotion He has carried out effectively sufficient in his return from a three-month layoff to nonetheless deserve point out as a reputable Derby candidate. He received off to a gradual begin and was caught by Pumas, however ought to enhance in his second begin again. … robusta state Within the San Felipe Stakes, he nearly ran an unbelievable time of 67.30-1, however was caught by Potente close to the end line. It was an enormous enchancment from his sixth place within the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, however he nonetheless has an issue along with his 25 Derby qualifying factors.
quiet down
1. Blunt
Brant, final 12 months’s Del Mar Futurity winner and third-place finisher within the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, returned from greater than 4 months off to complete because the 4-5 favourite within the San Felipe Stakes Offered by DK Horse. The stallion Gun Runner set a pressure-packed tempo for the half-mile with a time of 46.62 seconds, however he received off to a gradual begin and misplaced out to stablemate Potente by six and three-quarters of a size, ending fifth out of seven horses. There isn’t any doubt Brandt wanted a race after an prolonged interval of absence, however his Equibase velocity determine of 83 is the bottom of his profession and we’re at some extent on the Derby course the place any setback is vital. It was an unlucky season debut for considered one of this 12 months’s main Kentucky Derby contenders.
2. Butane
Since his debut victory at Del Mar final August, jockey Buetan has began 4 consecutive stakes races. He by no means completed worse than fourth whereas ending third within the Graded Stakes and incomes 16 Kentucky Derby qualifying factors. Nonetheless, the horse didn’t make an impression, with the closest he got here to victory being a two-length second place within the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on January 10. He misplaced by 3 1/4 lengths within the Southwest Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on February sixth, and completed 4th in final weekend’s Virginia Derby Offered by New Kent County, 6 1/2 lengths behind Unbelievable, as a favourite with 3 wins and a pair of losses. His Equibase Velocity Determine dropped 11 factors to 86, and he has misplaced 4 straight, together with three at odds of 3-2 or worse. The $1.15 million buy as a 2-year-old clearly has capacity, however Buetan must present extra capacity to change into a Kentucky Derby contender.
3. So Pleased
I assumed So Pleased really ran very effectively in defeat after pushing a stable tempo within the San Felipe Stakes offered by DK Horse. After profitable the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, the Run Pleased stallion elevated his distance for the primary time across the second nook and continued to struggle exhausting till the top, however misplaced within the closing phases and completed in third place. I believe he was the very best horse on this race, however I believe he is most likely greatest suited to one-turn races. His equal velocity numbers dropped from 100 in San Vicente to 90 in San Felipe. I imagine in So Pleased and assume his future is vivid, however operating a mile and 1 / 4 within the Kentucky Derby is a no brainer.
