Welcome to the Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile. Here’s a weekly have a look at latest winners on the Street to the Derby schedule, a qualifying race for the 1 1/4-mile Traditional on Could 2, 2026 at Churchill Downs.
This week we’ll take a more in-depth look rising marketthe winner of Twinspires.com’s $1 million Louisiana Derby to be held on the Fairgrounds on March twenty first, secured 100 qualifying factors on his method to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and punched his ticket to the Triple Crown’s first jewel.
Race abstract: Rising Market was the 2-1 favourite to win the Louisiana Derby in his first 1-mile, 40-yard particular weight race on Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs, regardless of having raced solely as soon as earlier than. Tampa’s victory earned him an enormous Beyer velocity determine and likewise capped expectations for the top-class coach and jockey duo of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat on the Fairgrounds on March twenty first.
Leaping to 1 3/16 miles in his second profession race after which leaping into the G2 Stakes on the Kentucky Derby course for a seven-figure purse in his first race was a monumental check for the upstart, however he proved as much as the problem.
The brown Sweet Journey colt raced by way of the half-mile from inside three and a half lengths in 46.23 seconds, gaining floor beneath Pratt and coming into the lengthy fairground straight to problem pacesetter Pavlovian in a dominant rally.
Rising Market took the lead across the three-sixteenth pole, however Pavlovian fought again and pushed his head ahead across the eighth pole, however Rising Market ran out within the closing phases and received by a head.
At Rising Markets, he accomplished the ultimate quarter mile in 24.82 seconds and the ultimate eighth mile in 12.51 seconds. It was an extremely shut margin for a 3-year-old horse in his second profession race.
Klaravich Steady proprietor Seth Claman and Brown have up to now taken a conservative strategy with evenly raced 3-year-olds Cloud Computing and Early Voting, each of whom averted the Derby after three begins and received the 2017 and 2022 Preakness Stakes, respectively. Brown advised BloodHorse after the Louisiana Derby that rising markets can be thought-about as the primary jewel within the Triple Crown.
Velocity numbers: Rising markets are instance of how totally different velocity determine producers can charge a race or sequence of races very otherwise. The Rising Market horse had the very best lifetime velocity quantity for his debut victory on the Louisiana Derby observe, in accordance with the velocity numbers of Beyer (97) and Brisnett (99), however his Equibase velocity variety of 79 was the bottom high quantity among the many 9 runners. He earned a Beyer Velocity Determine of 90 and an Equibase Velocity Determine of 89 within the Louisiana Derby (Brisnett has not but launched his scores).
Working model: The rising market horse has sufficient tactical velocity to carry out properly, however he has a profile as an off-the-pace runner and might want to navigate some site visitors within the 20-horse Kentucky Derby subject if he could make the race.
Pedigree notes: The Rising Market foal is owned by undefeated Argentinian star Sweet Journey, who set the mile file at Del Mar when he received the 2003 Pacific Traditional in 1:59.11 and have become a number one sire. Sweet Journey’s high runners embody Corridor of Famer Gun Runner, champions Shared Perception and Sport Winner, and 2025 Dubai World Cup winner Hit Present, amongst 131 stakes winners by way of March 22.
Rising Market’s dam is Wild Empress, a offspring of the 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Wild Empress is a half-sister (similar dam, totally different sire) to 2-year-old filly CB Wild, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and champion.
Derby potentialities: Primarily based on his Louisiana Derby end and high quality stamina pedigree, the rising market horse ought to carry out properly at 1 1/4 miles. His connections (house owners, trainers, jockeys) are top-notch, and along with his pure expertise, he has loads of dedication, and he confirmed nice enchancment towards Pavlovian within the Louisiana Derby.
For many years, horse racing followers and analysts have introduced up Apollo’s curse – no horse has received the Kentucky Derby with out racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882 – however 2018’s Justify and 2023’s Mage dispelled that curse.
Nonetheless, there was a cause the curse existed. Working a mile and 1 / 4 for the primary time is hard for a 3-year-old, who beats 19 opponents in entrance of greater than 100,000 followers in his first race with restricted information and restricted expertise. In rising markets, you may be bidding on the primary horse to win the Kentucky Derby in two or fewer begins. Seven others challenged TO Password’s finest results of fifth place in 2024. Rising markets appear like an thrilling prospect. It could take extraordinary means to win the Kentucky Derby in his third begin.
