Which horse has the very best likelihood of profitable Saturday’s $1.5 million G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park? Historical past may help information us to the reply. After analyzing the previous 20 Arkansas Derbies, we now have 5 optimistic handicap angles that can be utilized to find out the strongest horses on this 12 months’s replace.
Listed below are some historic developments to remember when betting on the 2026 Arkansas Derby.
Tactical pace is a bonus
Horses that come from behind might win within the Arkansas Derby, however horses with superior preliminary (tactical) pace carry out finest, to various levels. Ten of the final 20 winners (50%) had been racing in first, second or third place after the primary half-mile, and 16 of the final 20 winners (80%) had been inside three and a half lengths of the chief at that time.
12 months | winner | Location after first 0.5 mile | 1/2 mile and |
2025 | sandman | 7th 13.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :45.21, 1:10.37 (quick) |
2024 | mousse | 2n.d. 0.5 horse size distinction (10 starters) | :47.46, 1:12.26 (quick) |
2023 | angel of empire | 7th 4.5 size distinction (10 starters) | :47.26, 1:12.24 (quick) |
2022 | cyber knife | 4th 2 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :46.54, 1:11.22 (quick) |
2021 | tremendous inventory | 4th 2 horse size distinction (6 starters) | :46.51, 1:11.25 (quick) |
2020 #1 | trickster | 1cent 2 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :46.08, 1:09.68 (quick) |
2020 #2 | nadal | 2n.d. 0.5 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :46.21, 1:09.85 (quick) |
2019 | Omaha Seaside | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (11 starters) | :47.50, 1:12.46 (miscellaneous) |
2018 | magnum moon | 1cent 0.5 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :48.60, 1:13.39 (quick) |
2017 | basic empire | 7th 2.5 size distinction (12 starters) | :46.92, 1:11.16 (excessive pace) |
2016 | creator | 12th 14.25 size distinction (12 starters) | :46.33, 1:10.61 (quick) |
2015 | american pharaoh | 2n.d. 3 horse size distinction (8 starters) | :45.99, 1:10.54 (quick) |
2014 | Danza | 4th 2 horse size distinction (8 starters) | :47.71, 1:12.29 (quick) |
2013 | over evaluation | 7th 3.5 size distinction (10 starters) | :47.64, 1:12.57 (quick) |
2012 | bodemeister | 1cent 1.5 size distinction (11 starters) | :46.55, 1:11.36 (quick) |
2011 | archie | 9th 6.25 size distinction (13 starters) | :46.53, 1:11.22 (quick) |
2010 | line of david | 1cent 3.5 size distinction (9 starters) | :46.26, 1:10.75 (quick) |
2009 | Papa Clem | 5th 3.5 size distinction (10 starters) | :46.19, 1:11.15 (quick) |
2008 | Gaiego | 2n.d. 0.5 horse size distinction (13 starters) | :46.61, 1:11.09 (quick) |
2007 | curl | 3rd 3 horse size distinction (9 starters) | :47.89, 1:12.64 (quick) |
Respect common and low-priced horses
Horses that began at odds of 6-1 or much less have gained 15 of the final 20 (75%) Arkansas Derby races, together with 9 winners (45%) who began as favorites.
Rebel is a crucial stepping stone
The simplest preparation for the Arkansas Derby is the Grade 2 Insurgent Stakes at Oak Garden. Insurgent has produced 9 of the previous 20 (45%) horses within the Arkansas Derby, together with seven of the previous 12 (58%).
G1 profitable route racer produces essentially the most winners
Sixteen (80%) of the previous 20 Arkansas Derby winners had been sired by stallions who gained no less than one Group 1 race over 1 1/16 miles.
Bob Baffert has a excessive profitable proportion
Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert has ridden 16 starters within the final 20 Arkansas Derbies. 5 of Baffert’s horses visited the winner’s circle, posting a excessive profitable proportion of 31%.
conclusion
Historical past could not be extra clear: The most probably winner of the 2026 Arkansas Derby is #9 Litmus check paper.
Litmus Take a look at is a offspring of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, who gained 4 Group 1 races over 1 1/16 miles. Litmus Take a look at has loads of tactical pace and has by no means raced greater than 3 1/2 lengths off his preliminary tempo. He’s skilled by Bob Baffert, completed third within the Degree S and is projected to begin at odds of not more than 6-1 within the Arkansas Derby.
Consequently, the litmus check completely matches the earlier profile of the Arkansas Derby winner.
Benefit from the race!
