On this characteristic, we take a capsule take a look at three horses who’re sizzling within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose probabilities of competing within the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve usually are not as robust as they as soon as have been. Within the sixth version of this weblog for the 2026 Rose Run, we’ll deal with what has modified because the final version on March seventeenth.
Heating
1. Rising markets
Rising Market simply slotted into the highest spot this week as he confirmed his mettle in a deep run, defeating runner-up Pavlovian by a head within the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on the Fairgrounds on March 21. On this week’s Rising Market Derby Prospect Profile, I wrote extra in regards to the Sweet Trip colt, who made his stakes debut in simply his second begin, stretching from 40 yards a mile to 1 3/16 miles. He handed each the category and distance checks with coach Chad Brown. If he heads to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby on Could 2, Rising Market can be making an attempt one thing he hasn’t achieved within the earlier 151 races: profitable the Basic in two or fewer begins. I am skeptical he could make historical past with an unprecedented victory at Churchill Downs in his third race, however we could have simply scratched the floor of his talents in rising markets, and his remaining quarter mile: 24.82 seconds within the Louisiana Derby reveals he must do extra sixteenths of a mile. If we take one step at a time, I believe it is doable to complete within the prime three within the Derby.
2. With all my may
The grey or roan colt out of Liam’s Map answered favorites within the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steak at Turfway Park on March 21, scoring his first stakes victory after coming from a detailed ninth to complete second within the Turfway Stakes. Full Effort gained two of his 4 races as a two-year-old, all on turf, however as a three-year-old he has raced completely at Turfway’s all-weather Tapeta Footings monitor for coach Brad Cox. A yr in the past, Cox ran Closing Gambit thrice at Turfway, additionally culminating in a victory over Jeff Ruby, earlier than ending fourth within the Kentucky Derby at odds of 17.55 to 1. This yr’s sport plan was just like Full Effort, ending the ultimate eight miles in 12.99 seconds at Jeff Ruby Steak and profitable by two and a half lengths. Full Effort earned a brand new career-best Equibase Velocity Index of 99, enhancing by six factors and pushing his finest Beyer Velocity Index of 11 factors to 94. Full Effort, out of the multi-stakes-winning Superior Once more filly Colemete Squeeze, is a half-brother to Energy Squeeze, who gained the 2024 G1 Alabama Stakes on dust. Full Effort, who has by no means competed in a dust race, is a wild card for the 2026 Kentucky Derby…however he’ll be within the beginning gate, so he ought to give it his all, even when he is late.
3. Pavlovian
The Louisiana Derby runner-up ran a extremely gutsy race on March twenty first, preventing again after being handed in a straight line and ultimately closing in on winner Rising Market by a head. He earned new profession finest Beyer pace values of 90 and Equibase pace values of 89, crossing the primary half mile at a strong tempo in 46.23 seconds earlier than ending the ultimate quarter mile in 24.96 seconds. It was most likely a greater race than the pace numbers would counsel, however with solely 10 begins, I do not suppose Pavlovian has as a lot room for enchancment as the 2 3-year-olds above. The grey or roan colt produced by Pavel, who gained the Sunland Park Derby in his earlier race, had mainly the identical pace numbers, so he was capable of make little progress after six weeks of relaxation. He additionally has a variety of groundwork below two-time Kentucky Derby-winning coach Doug O’Neill, and is assured a spot within the Kentucky Derby.
Additionally relevant: sharp distinction Switching from grass to all-weather at Jeff Ruby Steaks, he took an early lead at Turfway Park on March 21 and completed second behind Full Effort. Stark Distinction was dropped in his solely profession dust begin at Del Mar final August, leaving coach Michael McCarthy with a call to make at 50 qualifying factors for the Kentucky Derby. Whereas this complete is probably going sufficient to get him into the beginning gate for the Kentucky Derby, the Caravaggio colt’s Equibase pace determine has dropped from 107 to 95, indicating that turf might be his most popular monitor.
quiet down
1. Honcho Chip
Chip Honcho set the tempo within the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Truthful Grounds on March 21, then dropped again to complete fifth, however competed in all 4 Kentucky Derby qualifying races on the identical monitor. The Gun Runner Stakes winner was a decisive runner-up within the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, his quickest race up to now, however took a step again within the Louisiana Derby. Chip Honcho most likely has 49 factors to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, however going from an equal base pace determine of 98 to 73 with an extra 1/16 mile distance was not ultimate. The Join colt, educated by Steve Asmussen, will want a pointy reversal of type throughout the 1 1/4-mile stretch main as much as the Derby.
2.Blacksmith
Final yr’s Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up, Blacksmith, ran within the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on March 21, profitable by a commanding 3 3/4 lengths within the first mile race at Santa Anita Park in February. The bay colt was Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert’s fourth selection in a subject of 9 horses, however he did not make a lot of an affect on the race. He began in seventh place, however completed sixth, 13 lengths behind winner Rising Market. I hope to see him subsequent time in a better place — a $1 million race on the Kentucky Derby course is not any imply feat for a first-time winner — and perhaps in a shorter race like his latest mile victory.
3. Medici household
Medici ran nicely regardless of shedding the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steak. After ending third by six lengths at Turfway Park on March twenty first, this place won’t harm the horse in any approach. He was transitioning from grass to the all-weather floor of Turfway in quest of a priceless shot and a giant purse on the Kentucky Derby path. He wasn’t named a Triple Crown horse till Corridor of Fame coach Richard Mandela’s first starter at Turfway in 24 years, however I’d be slightly shocked if Medici was among the many late picks. He positioned second within the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita Park on February 26, marking consecutive triple-digit equibase pace figures in turf races. I believe Medici has a superb likelihood of qualifying for the Derby, and after dropping 12 factors from an Equibase Velocity Index of 102 at Pasadena to 90 at Jeff Ruby, he has a superb likelihood of returning to the grass.
