Welcome to Texas. The PGA heads to Memorial Park for the Texas Kids’s Houston Open. It is a grip-it-and-rip-it setup the place the motive force is given the inexperienced mild and the golf green is essentially out of the query. Even in the event you miss, you’ll be able to nonetheless assault, which adjustments the main focus of your complete event. Off-the-tee provides gamers a bonus, but it surely does not permit them to win.
The true take a look at begins with the second shot. The targets are small, the greens are troublesome, and getting the ball shut is tougher than it appears. When you miss, issues get even worse. Chipping is demanding, scrambling is unreliable, and photographs are simply returned. Everybody has an opportunity, however not everybody converts.
That is the lens for this week’s PGA. I prioritize gamers who can bounce off the motive force and survive and take benefit when circumstances get robust across the greens. Distance will get you into place, however precision and contact will decide who will soar to the highest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (Consists of tie) Topic to alter.
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Lee Min Woo: High 20 (-120)
It is no coincidence that Lee was chosen because the winner. His profile is strictly what you get with this course, and extra importantly, it is reproducible.
He is without doubt one of the greatest drivers within the area, rating second in strokes gained off the tee and second in strokes gained from tee to inexperienced. Memorial Park permits gamers to swing aggressively with out vital penalties. Lee is ready to not solely exploit it, but additionally create separation from it. His distance and managed velocity make it simple to see into the inexperienced, elevating each the ceiling and the ground.
What units Lee aside from different high-upside gamers is his means to get better even when his irons aren’t sharp. T12 at Riviera, the place he misplaced six strokes on his strategy, is a transparent instance of that security web. His play across the greens and skill to attain retains him afloat.
-120 is an affordable worth contemplating he has the skillset to win once more and the consistency to be on web page one of many leaderboard come Sunday.
Brooks Koepka: High 20 (+120)
With a powerful basis within the fundamental recreation, outcomes are beginning to catch up. Koepka has been the second-best iron participant and third-best tee-to-green of this week’s gamers over the previous 20 rounds, and has been a cornerstone of Memorial Park’s success. It isn’t a course that requires precision off the tee, so his lack of accuracy does not actually matter. What issues is that he is lengthy sufficient to take benefit and elite sufficient to separate with the irons.
You’ll be able to’t faux ball hanging. Koepka’s present type reveals that a part of his recreation is clicking, which has helped push him to a 3rd consecutive top-20 end. He is additionally making features across the greens, and the ground is excessive. There’s nonetheless some volatility, however you are getting a participant with confirmed closing means, elite tee-to-green metrics, and the appropriate profile for the course.
Moreover, as a result of Koepka helped form Memorial Park’s aggressive atmosphere, he is aware of first-hand how Memorial Park ought to play and has a clearer understanding of the place to assault and the place errors will probably be punished. That familiarity can result in higher decision-making underneath strain in comparison with within the area.
Keith Mitchell: High 20 (+165)
That is the place the worth and profile actually match. He has a mixture of distance and management that fits this course effectively and is without doubt one of the greatest drivers within the area, ending within the high 15 off the tee. Get rewarded for driving aggressively. Mitchell begins with a bonus. His worth stands out as a result of his tee-to-green play is stronger than his outcomes. He has proven aggressive strategy play earlier than this event, together with a T11 at Torrey Pines, one of many closest comp programs. When the irons work collectively, he appears like an elite participant.
That instability comes from his quick recreation, which may fluctuate from week to week. It is the distinction between ending within the high 10 and ending exterior the highest 30. However for a top-20 wager, Mitchell is constant sufficient to capitalize on the alternatives his drivers create. Repeatable expertise which can be undervalued out there.
Gamers to contemplate for every day fantasy
Nikolai Hojgaard $9,200: That is the place upside meets worth. He brings the identical aggressive, driver-focused profile because the dearer manufacturers, however with a barely extra steady baseline to the greens. His size provides him the chance to reap the benefits of Memorial Park, and if his irons are common, it may give him a scoring probability to maneuver up the leaderboard. He is not a protected play, however he provides you cap with out overpaying. Hojgaard has each win equity and lineup flexibility.
Jake Knapp $9,500: It is laborious to like as a result of the worth is about proper, however he has the vary and his T5 at Torrey Pines reveals he can stand as much as longer, driver-stressing exams. The issue is that his recreation nonetheless comes and goes cold and warm. He depends on stretches the place all the pieces goes effectively slightly than a gentle baseline that he can depend on. In the event you’re chasing upside, he is a viable play, however he does not have a transparent edge.
DFS participant fades out
Chris Gottapp $9,800: Gotterup is priced like a stable high possibility, however his profile does not fairly assist that. His worth lies in his dominance off the tee and occasional strategy spikes, that are first rate, however inconsistent.
If the 2 do not match up, his quick recreation will not be sturdy sufficient to save lots of rounds, resulting in chaotic scoring. Gotterup is combat or fall, so at this worth you are paying for a ceiling with out a dependable flooring. That is an issue in most lineup constructions. Gotthard is an inefficient use of his wage, as there are cheaper gamers with comparable upside and a extra balanced tee-to-green profile.
