On this function, we take a capsule have a look at three horses who’re scorching within the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose possibilities of competing within the 2026 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve are usually not as robust as they as soon as have been. The seventh version of this weblog on the 2026 Rose Problem focuses on what has modified for the reason that final version on March twenty fourth. This week proved to be a troublesome resolution to make relating to the highest three spots. The most important improve was Fukuryu Stakes winner Danone Bourbon of Japan, however following the information that undefeated Paladin can be sidelined, I imagine Renegade is now the almost certainly Kentucky Derby winner.
Heating
1. Renegade
Early final week, Renegade and Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin have been first and 1A on my Kentucky Derby listing. Renegade’s four-length rout within the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 28 made me assume they have been somewhat off monitor, however nothing deterred me from their possibilities of profitable the Kentucky Derby in 2026. He completed final of eight in 47.80 seconds by means of the half-mile, outscored his seven opponents with a time of 24.02 seconds within the ultimate quarter-mile and 11.84 seconds within the ultimate eight minutes. Lengthy story quick, he was flying late in a 1 1/8-mile dust race. He improved to a career-best 107 Equibase Pace Determine, and his Beyer Pace Determine additionally elevated by 5 factors to a brand new high of 98. With Paladin sidelined for a minimum of the summer time with a condylar fracture, Renegade appears like the most effective 3-year-old in his class, peaking on the proper time for coach Todd Pletcher.
2. Danone Bourbon
What did I take into consideration Danone Bourbon till final weekend? If it have been me I’d have mentioned, “I choose Woodford Reserve.” I am exaggerating a bit, however you get the sensation. On March twenty eighth, he received the Fukuryu Stakes held at Nakayama by three and a half lengths, and with wins at roughly 1 1/8 miles, 1 3/16 miles, and 1 1/8 miles, he improved his profession report to 3-3 with a complete of 18 and a half lengths. At Fukuryu, he seemed like a winner from starting to finish, however after choosing up the tempo from third and settling nicely below jockey Atsuya Nishimura, he entered the straight line and ran out the winner. He simply caught up with 2nd place Don Erectus and pushed by means of with nice pressure. Bought for $450,000 on the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Danone Bourbon is the first-bred offspring of G1 winner Maxfield out of the profitable Tapit mare Wild Ridge and a half-sister to 3 stakes winners, together with G2 winners Cazadero and Dubunel. It is pure to query the standard of the competitors, however I am shopping for the expertise.
3. Commandments
This week’s Kentucky Derby Prospects Profile was a complete evaluation of Commandment following his nostril victory over Pumas within the Curlin Florida Derby introduced by Hill and Dale Farms held at Gulfstream Park on March 28 at Xalapa. He used robust late fees (36.52 seconds for the final three-eighths of a mile and 24.38 seconds for the final quarter mile) to finish the rally from final place to first. Previous to the Florida Derby, main sire Into Mischief’s colt received the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes on February twenty eighth by a neck over Chief Wallaby, and for Kentucky Derby-winning coach Brad Cox, the horse is a confirmed fighter and a quick finisher. He now has back-to-back triple-digit Beyer Pace Figures and is 4-5 all-time with predominant monitor wins at Churchill Downs. Commandment is a authentic favourite to win on Could 2nd.
Additionally relevant: I believed it was runner-up puma and third place winner chief wallaby Though he misplaced badly within the Florida Derby, he ran nicely. In actual fact, I am ranking The Pumas on their second recreation of the sport, the place they have been extremely unfortunate and misplaced a headbob. I believed he wanted expertise, having solely received considered one of his final three races, and I believed he can be higher ready for the Kentucky Derby from a fundamentals and maturity standpoint. I’ve at all times cherished Chief Wallaby, however one drawback I’ve with him (quoting from Thomas Harding’s report from my pal Pete Denk and colleague Kerry Thomas) is that he appears content material to play good in instances of battle and compete together with his opponents reasonably than attempt to outdo them. … ways of silence It additionally carried out nicely within the Arkansas Derby, ending runner-up to Renegade. His ultimate quarter mile: 24.92 might be ok to win most races on the Derby course this winter and spring, and he stays a giant menace to complete within the high three on the Kentucky Derby. … marvel dean He put in the most effective effort of his profession on the Jumeirah UAE Derby at Meydan on March 28, ending tied with pacesetter Six Pace in a straight line, then holding off by two and a half lengths to win. The three-year-old horse from Japan, who earned his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with this win, deserves respect. That mentioned, I did not assume this was a very robust solid for the UAE Derby, and it is a daunting journey from Dubai to Louisville.
calm down
1.Nearly
Neary received his stakes debut within the Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 31 by a 5-3/4-length run and was close to the highest of most lists of Kentucky Derby favorites to run within the Curlin Florida Derby Offered by Hill and Dale Farms at Gulfstream Park on March 28 at Xalapa. He raced simply behind the sluggish tempo and took the lead over three-quarters of a mile in 1 minute 13 seconds, however this darkish bay or brown stallion might provide little resistance when challenged within the early stretches and dropped to fourth place. It wasn’t a disastrous efficiency by any means, but it surely very seemingly value him a spot within the Kentucky Derby – he is ranked twenty second.n.d. There are three predominant qualifiers this weekend, providing factors on a scale of 100-50-25-15-10, giving them 35 factors. My large concern with Neary popping out of Holy Bull was that he was not a quick finisher and that caught as much as him within the Florida Derby when he was late with the main trio and could not match stride.
2. Litmus paper
All indications are that the on-track litmus check earlier than the Arkansas Derby yielded nice outcomes, and when Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert removes the blinkers on a 3-year-old horse, it normally results in constructive outcomes. That was not the case at Oaklawn Park on March 28, when Litmus Take a look at obtained off to a nasty begin and completed seventh by 12 and a half lengths. With 34 factors to qualify for the Derby, the litmus check is now very prone to be exterior the 20-horse area for a spot. Even when he qualifies for the litmus check, he would wish a pointy turnaround to be a severe contender for the Could 2 Traditional.
3. Pyromancer
I admit I used to be cashing in on the hype surrounding Pyromancer’s participation within the UAE Derby hosted by Jumeirah on March twenty eighth. I’ve lengthy believed in horses based mostly in Japan and educated at worldwide stage, however this undefeated stallion of Pyro piqued my curiosity. He had crushed Marvel Dean two races earlier than, however this time he was no match for his compatriot and completed third, eight and a half lengths behind. Though he’s clearly a proficient racehorse, he’s now not undefeated and, like at Meydan, his Derby goals are gone.
Notice: The Each day Racing Type reported on March 28 that Fasig and Tipton had each received the Risen Star Stakes. paladin ESMARK participant third place in Tampa Bay Derby canaletto He can be absent from the Triple Crown race as a result of harm. Paladin was positively one of many favorites for the Kentucky Derby with three wins, together with the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes as a 2-year-old and the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star as a 3-year-old horse educated by Chad Brown. Paladin can be out of motion through the summer time as he recovers from a condylar fracture in his proper entrance cannon. Canaletto, a half-brother to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman, will even be sidelined till the autumn, in accordance with the report.
