Keeneland weekend begins! The final time we left Lexington was after a fall event that left handicappers with massive bucks. As we return for the spring, I am going to attempt to discover some costs that may considerably improve your bankroll on Friday and Saturday. The target is to produce horses with a minimal of 6 wins and 1 loss to the morning line.
Let’s have a look…
Friday, April third
Race #2, Starter Allowance, 7 furlongs, grime, 1:32pm ET.
#8 Menkaure (6-1 morning line): Menkaure will take part on this race after wintering at Turfway Park. She broke the report for her first two begins in a race that featured a number of runners who may even be lining up right here. Her three-back effort on the grime at Churchill wasn’t dangerous both. She broke immediately and set a respectable tempo for a mile earlier than fading out and ending third. This seven furlong distance ought to go well with her just a little higher.
Her first strive towards the winner was disappointing, which value her a bit. On at the present time, she gained 3-1, however stalled after selecting up the tempo. Nonetheless, she has since returned to the exercise tab of Will Walden, one of many highest charge trainers within the nation, and can begin Friday with Irad Ortiz Jr. I am particularly glad that I used to be in a position to attract a line towards the crappy horse within the earlier race. If he will get again to the shape he had within the earlier two races, he has a giant likelihood.
Race #4, Maiden Particular Weight, 6 1/2 furlongs, grime, 2:36pm ET.
#12 The place Luck Lives (10-1 ML): There are lots of runners collaborating on this race for the primary time, so we worth these with expertise. She did not begin relationship till late June, so “The place Luck Lives” hasn’t occurred shortly. Nonetheless, I feel there are a lot of issues I like.
The place Luck Lives was the fourth of her displays and was a extremely anticipated work by the connections who purchased her for $725,000 at public sale the earlier summer time. She was huge that day and made contact along with her opponent mid-stretch, shedding by lower than two lengths. She was sidelined in July, however has since labored constantly for Brian Lynch, who requested Corridor of Famer Joel Rosario to journey him in Florida.
There is a good likelihood she wants lace, which is why we’re getting a 10-to-1 value. But when she’s prepared, which I feel she is, she might be a significant participant and make the percentages appear to be an actual overlay.
Saturday, April 4th
Race #4, Maiden Particular Weight, 1 1/16 miles, grass, 2:36pm ET.
#8 Rune (15-1 ML): The primary of the 2 costs on Saturday is a tempo play for me. Loon obtained a little bit of a break final day trip at Turfway Park, however his solely effort earlier than that wasn’t nice. Nonetheless, she confirmed some pace on her second begin, dueling the flip for dwelling earlier than ending second six furlongs on Turfway’s all-weather floor.
She is an efficient coach for horses that may stretch to 2 turns (44-8 with an ROI of $2.87 in accordance with TwinSpires). This race feels very mild early on. It looks like Joel Rosario has been known as in right here to permit horse and jockey to determine on pleasant phrases on the entrance finish. In that case, she would acquire braveness at an incredible value.
Race #11, $1.25 million Toyota Bluegrass Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, grime, 6:22 p.m. ET.
#3 nice white shark (15-1ML): The principle occasion ends at a value you want a bit. Bluegrass has some exhausting hitters and it definitely seems to be like it should be a reasonably quick tempo. With that in thoughts, I’m itemizing horses which have confirmed to be shut, together with Nice White.
Most lately, the John Ennis coach gained the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway. The day’s runner-up, Full Effort, made a giant run to win the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steak. Though he picked up the tempo on at the present time, jockey Alex Accard is not going to lose any potential if he adopts such a tactic, as he has been evaluated additional backwards prior to now two races.
Nice White has by no means raced on grime earlier than, so this will probably be an essential class take a look at. Nonetheless, the latest on-site apply was spectacular, and it appears very possible that this would be the preferrred race format. On the very least, do not take him out of the unique horse race.
