Which 2025 Preakness Runners Should Be Great on Wet Tracks?

Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore City, Maryland Celebrates 150^th The May 17 Preakness Stakes run appears to have been free of rainfall this week, so Mother Nature did not seem to have taken notes about the festival.

The $2 million, 1 3/16 miles of Preakness Stakes serves as the mid-jewels of the triple crown of American Thoroughbred Racing, with four of the last 10 editions being held on the wet or “off” surface. Last year I blogged about this very topic, and the winner Seize The Gray won on the “off” track and had both the best Tomlinson ratings on the field (see bold description below).

There are many variables to consider when evaluating races like Preakness with nine 3-year-olds with various resumes. As a result, class, pace, and speed numbers all contribute to the handicap equation. It seems that the weather is also very likely to occur this week. So, the core of this blog is to predict which preakness runners will benefit from the moisture in the track and identify potential for victory that could be compromised.

Let’s start with the basics. What is “Off” or Wet Track? In its simplest terms, “off” is rated on the surface of non-high-speed races. Previously, I used the following brief explanation of the conditions for dirt tracks you might see/listen in Preakness Weekend.

• Good (track): Almost fast dirt track.
• Wet Fast (Track): A track with moisture on the surface that does not have time to impact the base of the surface.
• Muddy (Track): It’s in a racetrack that’s wet but has no water.
• Sloppy (Track): A lace surface that is saturated with water and allows you to see standing water.
• Enclosed (Truck): It floated (stuffed) and then harped.

The best predictor for runners to handle “off” tracks is past success. Racehorse who wins or runs faster on wet tracks is more likely to be better than horses with lower performance. The table below shows how this year’s Preakness Contenders performed on the “off” track with career records, top buyer speed figures on wet tracks, and best Equibase Speed ​​figures on wet tracks. The best Beyer and Equibase speed figures among the Preakness participants are just as bold as those who won on the wet track.

I did a light race #1 Goal Orientation He ran Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in the Kentucky Derby announced by Woodford Reserve’s undercard on the sloppy main track at Churchill Downs. He used his speed to open a clear lead, earning a mile allowance race in three-quarters of the length, earning a career-high 109 horse speed. His Beyer Speed ​​figures were not as promising as the 91 he won in his previous sole race, but in terms of dealing with wet surfaces, his high cruising speed at Pimlico and past wet track successes make for a promising picture.

Three of the other four runners who competed on the “off” track also raced the $5 million run at Rose, Kentucky Derby Day, in the main event. #2 Journalism It finished second with a sloppy track. #7 Sandman Finished 7th #3 America’s Promise It was a problematic 16^th. Journalism led in stretches, giving very good effort, earning numbers of 101 horse speeds and 102 Beyer speeds.

Sandman made a great middle move, but American promises collided early and got caught up in traffic late in the Kentucky Derby. I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss them from an unplaced finish in the Kentucky Derby either. In fact, America’s Promise won one of his two victories on a muddy track in December, winning his best Equibase Speed ​​Figure (102) and the Co-Best Bayer Speed ​​Figure (95) in that race.

#5 Pay Billy He finished third in his career debut, sprinting at Delaware Park in August 2024, with a sloppy track. The speed figures were not exciting, but that was the start of the seventh inning and he is now a much better racehorse.

In my opinion, if the track is wet on Preakness Day, both goal orientation and journalism rise. The other three are worth considering if you liked it in the first place, but you can’t make cases to enhance them on the “off” track.

Another useful tool to predict whether a horse will thrive on the “off” track Tomlinson reviewespecially for four Preakness participants who have no experience with wet tracks. Daily Race Form Use Tomlinson’s ratings to make educated guesses on how racehorses handle wet tracks based on the performance of horse stallions and offspring of Broodmare Sire. For the Preakness field, the table below lists candidates from High (best for wet tracks) to Low.

Using Tomlinson’s rating, #6 Revertames They usually pop out as a 3 year old who could improve on wet tracks, especially given the tactical speed on tracks that favor speed. Of course, you never know until the racehorse tries the “off” surface. That’s why looking at the American promises listed in journalism, goal orientation and over 400 Tomlinson ratings supports the cause on wet surfaces.

#9 Gosgar It is also raised to handle wet trucks #8 Also smartTomlinson’s rating is promising, but Billy doesn’t pay either. #4 Heart of Honor If the truck is wet, it will be my ticket.